VP watch
You really have to credit the Obama campaign for keeping the secret. In these days of leaks, it's a truly astonishing demonstration of discipline that, with all the press resources dedicated to this, they've managed to keep the secret.
That said, there's rumors running around the internets about this charter flight departing Chicago Midway at 5:05 to arrive in Wilmington Delaware at 7:08. (You can track it live at FlightAware.)
And, Andrea Mitchell "reported" on Hardball that both Bayh and Kaine had received a rejection call. (MSNBC article here.)
That said, there's rumors running around the internets about this charter flight departing Chicago Midway at 5:05 to arrive in Wilmington Delaware at 7:08. (You can track it live at FlightAware.)
And, Andrea Mitchell "reported" on Hardball that both Bayh and Kaine had received a rejection call. (MSNBC article here.)
posted by mikevotes at
5:44 PM
6 Comments:
Mike,
I knew we could count on you to find this. Cool, thank you, although I'm extremely disappointed with the choice if it's Biden. Obama's numbers have been going the wrong way, and this will make them drop faster. If it's Biden, he just kissed a bunch of swing-red states goodbye.
By
MarcLord, at 9:01 PM
I've been avoiding most of the rumor speculation, but with Bayh and and now Kaine reportedly out, I feel like I can indulge.
And, I don't know if I agree with Biden losing states.
First off, VP selections don't have that much effect unless your runningmate is Hitler (or pro-choice on the Republican side,) and second, Biden's kind of a chameleon.
Biden is the safe middle choice. Clinton or Bayh were the choices if he thought he needed vote help, Kaine if he was so sure he was going to win. Biden will make the media happy enough, and in the end that's the primary audience for a VP pick.
By
mikevotes, at 9:24 PM
Biden will keep the media happy, granted. But somebody also has to vote, and I have to disagree on the overall Biden Effect.
In perceptions, Obama is still a wild card, or at least still different, reinforcing his message of Change. Biden, on the other hand, is to most of this country a poster boy for "East-Coast Tax 'n Spend Liberal Wimp," and has been for the past 20+ years. He erodes the Change brand further.
Not talking realities here, which favor a Biden appointment in some ways, rather perceptions which are far worse. Not only does he take a VP who will, repeat will, lose him votes on the ground, he also loses a great Secretary of State.
By
MarcLord, at 9:45 PM
I understand the argument of damage to the change brand, but that brand is so strong that I don't think any damage done will be significant.
I think you do make a fairer point that Biden might not work with some republicans, but, to me, shoring up that foreign policy.experience front with some Dems and independents is worth more.
Just in the fact that he's young, different in delivery, and black, Obama owns change. But he's losing votes right now among Dems and independents that he should be winning on "experience."
I they're willing to take the exchange on the two.
(Who would you view as better? Kaine for change? Sebelius for Republican reach?
I'm not ecstatic about Biden, but I view him as good. He'll be a good VP candidate in the debates and such, can play the attack dog, is beloved by the media.
I saw a different upside in Bayh, too, but he and Obama just didn't seem to get along.
And, I think Kaine was a bit of a gamble. Good for change, reaches a few different audiences, but not too much experience on the big stage.
And I always thought McCaskill or Webb could make good choices, but neither was ever seriously considered.)
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mikevotes, at 10:03 PM
I really do want to believe you, and really like Biden. Much agreed on McCaskill and Webb, and there must have been heated debates in Camp Obama over the trade-offs.
There's something I'm not expressing well enough--Obama's real election weakness isn't inexperience. That's only a weakness with the media elite, which translates to, "Will he screw us?" Mass voters, i.e. those who don't think, don't care about experience, just effectiveness. The masses vote below the belt, exactly where Obama is losing traction. McCain is gaining steadily in the gut vote, ergo his campaign's slam-bang reaction to MansionGate.
No matter how I slice it, Biden is a real negative below the belt. Perhaps his greatest above-the-belt positive is he will hammer McCain effectively. Still, that pales in comparison to what Kaine would've brought: the votes of one swing state and a haircut done with a Flo-bee and a mixing bowl.
That haircut speaks to every working stiff be they male or female, Democrat or Republican, country-wide. It was electoral gold, probably worth 4-5 million votes. Add to that his Suth'en accent.
You might think I'm kidding on the haircut. Far from it. Like most of my relatives, most of this country doesn't have time to think deeply about this stuff. If my relatives, largely apolitical Independent voters, had just got to see that Blue Light Special hair, they would've seen themselves. When they see Biden they'll think he's fake.
Sorry if I sounded strident at any point, but I know the effect this will have on them and so many others like them. If the Obama camp doesn't understand them, they don't understand America.
This (imminent) choice gives the McCain strategists much to play with, and you will hear them start talking more about change, and the lack thereof. For the first time, they'll be able to effectively attack Obama's strength. I hope they've figured out their trade-off with a magic calculator.
By
MarcLord, at 12:43 AM
No, you didn't sound strident, but I've got you now.
As for the "gut" point, I'm not sure. I don't see Biden as a big drag in that area, but, then again, I'm not a "gut" voter.
By
mikevotes, at 6:27 AM
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