TV versus people on the ground....
Reading this NYTimes piece on the Obama supporters organizing in North Carolina got me thinking..... One of the really underreported elements in this year's election is the vast gap in volunteers and "ground game" between the candidates.
The Obama campaign is spending alot of money out developing field offices trying to access their vast volunteer base across all 50 states, while the McCain camp seems "slow" in developing its field offices.
Occasionally you'll read or hear that the McCain folks are eschewing some of this ground work in favor of TV media, part as strategy, part because they just don't have the volunteers showing up.
So, here are the questions. Can McCain get away without much ground operation and a mostly TV/media campaign? In recent years, Republicans have more loyally turned out to vote, so does he need the same level of operation?
How about the return per dollar spent? What's the ratio on dollars spent in advertising versus dollars spent on the ground?
(And, as I've said many times before, it's kinda mindblowing to me that there is not one group which is passionate about a John McCain candidacy. Not evangelicals, not no-taxers, not anti-immigration, not gun lobby......)
The Obama campaign is spending alot of money out developing field offices trying to access their vast volunteer base across all 50 states, while the McCain camp seems "slow" in developing its field offices.
Occasionally you'll read or hear that the McCain folks are eschewing some of this ground work in favor of TV media, part as strategy, part because they just don't have the volunteers showing up.
So, here are the questions. Can McCain get away without much ground operation and a mostly TV/media campaign? In recent years, Republicans have more loyally turned out to vote, so does he need the same level of operation?
How about the return per dollar spent? What's the ratio on dollars spent in advertising versus dollars spent on the ground?
(And, as I've said many times before, it's kinda mindblowing to me that there is not one group which is passionate about a John McCain candidacy. Not evangelicals, not no-taxers, not anti-immigration, not gun lobby......)
posted by mikevotes at
7:06 AM
2 Comments:
In recent years, Republicans have more loyally turned out to vote, so does he need the same level of operation?
He needs it more than the GOP did in 2004. The primaries are when the major Parties get the bulk of their new/modified registrations. But most importantly, it's where they get the voter data that the ground campaign will work with in September/October. That's all of the phone numbers, addresses, and specific target issues each campaign uses to get volunteers, donations, and turnout.
By having an abbreviated primary campaign, the Republicans were deprived of the chance to update and expand that voter data, which weakens the effectiveness of their ground game.
For all that's made of the awesome Republican lists and organisation, the truth is that the bulk of the heavy lifting was done by evangelicals compiling data and providing volunteers. An awful lot of "nominal Republicans" were pulled in by the non-evangelicals, who turned out then but may not turn out now.
So the GOP is working with 2004 lists and updating them. The story on the Democrats is that their lists were terrible prior to the primary season; outdated, incorrect, and very small. The primary campaign changed all that as new registrations soared across the board and both Obama and HRC produced a veritable gold mine of absolutely current data, in huge amounts, in every state.
It probably will be harder for the GOP to turn people out this time, and old lists don't help. It can be done, though. The Democrats, however, have the biggest potential ground game since the 1930's. Far too many states have been taken for granted and ignored by both Parties for too long based on a self-reinforcing assessment. Obama opens up a tremendous wild card with ground games in states that haven't really never been organised since the '60's. He's going for what's behind Door #2, but the GOP is settling for the steak knives and colour TV.
By
Todd Dugdale , at 11:04 AM
And the GOP had a pretty big turnout operation in 2004, and relatively lots of volunteers.
Good point about the lists. I wonder, though, how much of that pulls through to 2008. I guess it depends on how they're built. For instance, a list built off evangelical church rosters is probably still pretty valid, whereas one built off a polling location might have more misses.
And, I think the larger use of early voting probably helps the side with the larger ground game.
We still have the question of the ratio of effectiveness between media money vs. organizational money.
By
mikevotes, at 1:27 PM
Post a Comment
<< Home