Son of the Return of The Obama Fret
So..... Here we go again. It seems we're in another round of the "Obama fret." The first few rounds were demographically specific, "he can't win women/Hispanics/working class whites/Jews/etc" except that he's polling just fine among all those groups.
This round of "Obama fret" is even more unbelievable. The mantra seems to be "he's not winning by enough."
What?
Obama is up +5 consistently in the major polls. He's pretty handily winning all the electoral projections, and neither of those numbers is moving away from him. If he were to win the general election by +5 or +6, loosely estimating, the electoral vote would be a landslide 330-208 or so.
But, according to the media mantra, that's still not enough.
Now he's got to be up +10 or he's a failure.
Incredible.
Remember when "nobody was going to vote for a black man"?
(Addendum: For 2 1/2 months the polls haven't moved... at all. Obama in the high 40's, McCain in the low 40's.
Barring something huge, this vote appears to be pretty calcified. The battle is all over that last 10%.)
This round of "Obama fret" is even more unbelievable. The mantra seems to be "he's not winning by enough."
What?
Obama is up +5 consistently in the major polls. He's pretty handily winning all the electoral projections, and neither of those numbers is moving away from him. If he were to win the general election by +5 or +6, loosely estimating, the electoral vote would be a landslide 330-208 or so.
But, according to the media mantra, that's still not enough.
Now he's got to be up +10 or he's a failure.
Incredible.
Remember when "nobody was going to vote for a black man"?
(Addendum: For 2 1/2 months the polls haven't moved... at all. Obama in the high 40's, McCain in the low 40's.
Barring something huge, this vote appears to be pretty calcified. The battle is all over that last 10%.)
posted by mikevotes at
7:53 AM
6 Comments:
The fret is pointless, because stuff will go up and down until the election.
There will be a big fret from McCain's post convention bump. But is it newsworthy? We know it will happen.
By
realist, at 8:02 AM
True, but it's not even really going up and down. If you take out the daily trackings, the major polls still show it Obama +5 or +6!!!
I cannot remember an election where the polling didn't move for 2 1/2 months, at all.
And, I'm not so sure there will be significant bumps either way in the base numbers. You might see some undecideds moving, but Obama in the high 40's, McCain in the low 40's seems to be a locked in calcified number without some huge game changing event.
By
mikevotes, at 8:09 AM
Obama has to have at least 10 points to counter the vote stealing techniques used by the Republicans in 2000, 2004, and will assuredly use this year as well.
By
Lew Scannon, at 2:21 PM
Even granting direct "vote stealing" beyond the usual ugly "fewer machines in the poor areas" and efforts to disenfranchise, I don't think you can get away with "stealing" 10 points.
It's too big. My opinion, you might be able to tip one state and blame "systemic" vote counting problems, but I don't even think you get away with stealing 10 points in one state.
Maybe a few points, maybe enough to tip one close state, but not across the board, and not big numbers.
By
mikevotes, at 2:48 PM
lew: the electoral college is not "vote stealing". It is how Presidents are chosen. Always.
By
realist, at 4:15 PM
Realist, I think he's talking about the allegations about the voting machines and some of the irregularities.
By
mikevotes, at 4:18 PM
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