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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Thursday, July 03, 2008

Quote

Steve Schmidt, McCain's newly promoted campaign aide,
"There are 125 days left until the American people will decide the next president," he said. "Senator McCain is the underdog in the race. We suspect he is behind nationally five to eight points but well within striking distance."
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posted by mikevotes at 10:23 AM

4 Comments:

  • I wonder if Schmidt "suspects" that his candidate is behind in the electoral vote projections as well.

    Conventional Wisdom says that five points is the best that a "ground game" can make up in a state, but that's with a state-focused campaign, not some generic national message. The only way to cover that much ground in so many states at once is by pounding night and day on the "fear Obama" message.
    And Schmidt is a disciple of Karl Rove.

    By Blogger Todd Dugdale , at 6:13 PM  

  • I assume your contention is not that the McCain ground game will beat Obama's.

    McCain still doesn't have the passionate supporter/volunteers.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 7:08 PM  

  • I assume your contention is not that the McCain ground game will beat Obama's.

    Damn straight.
    "5 to 8" is not covered by "5 at best", and a generic message is not "at best". That's the concise version.

    Negative campaigning will stir the wingnuts into an unholy froth, which the McCain campaign will have to devote much effort into distancing themselves from. McCain's idiot choir will cost him the moderates. His support among the military and military families is 50% at best. The heavy use of RNC talking points in the campaign will cost him the independents. Barr siphons off his support in some red states. And he could have a meltdown any day.

    The question in my mind is how the GOP will treat him after he loses. They don't have a history of kindness in that regard, and they are betting everything on him.

    By Blogger Todd Dugdale , at 11:35 PM  

  • Wow. I didn't see that LATimes poll. I'm gonna put that up. (but not on July 4th.)

    And, my first guess is that if McCain gets 48 state blown out, it'll be "he wasn't a real Republican." If it's reasonably close, it'll be "great effort in a bad year." Fighter/reinforces his "tough politician" rep.

    But again, it's somewhat in the wind because he doesn't have any "native support." I guess it's a question of how much the GOP pundits bond to him in the next five months.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 6:23 AM  

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