Get Ready.
This is one of those that seems credible, but I'm not sure.
My question is why would these Congressmen be talking about this? Is this a feint to pressure the Pakistanis?
Three US congressmen back from a trip to the region revealed yesterday they were briefed about US plans to stage raids against targets in Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas, where most of the militancy feeding the insurgency in Afghanistan is believed to be based.....
A secret agreement between the US and President Pervez Musharraf to allow US special forces to enter Pakistan in pursuit of terrorists in the FATA region is said to have stalled under the new administration in Islamabad.
My question is why would these Congressmen be talking about this? Is this a feint to pressure the Pakistanis?
posted by mikevotes at
7:06 AM
6 Comments:
I'm hardly a defender of Pakistan, but at this point I don't really understand what anyone expects Pakistan to do about the FATA.
They've launched campaigns lasting several months, and it's been a disaster. There's very, very little popular support for the effort outside of the FATA, and absolutely none within it. The military itself is reluctant to carry out what it perceives as a campaign against it's own people, and the political opposition sees the issue as more puppetry from Bush. Meanwhile, the drone strikes from the U.S. forces are seen as a violation of Pakistan's sovereignty and undermine the pro-U.S. factions in the government.
Even worse, the ISI clearly favours the current situation. Such a no-man's land gives them great latitude to operate.
We once again seem to be operating on an extremely simplistic model without any recognition of the complex distribution of power in the Pakistani system. Applying political pressure alienates the military. Applying military pressure alienates the politicians. Applying covert ops pressure backfires by alienating virtually everyone.
By
Todd Dugdale , at 9:12 AM
Right. I agree fully.
But the question I can't seem to find an answer for, is, from the US side, what do you do?
There's two very tied together but different problems. First you have real, true Al Qaeda who I think you might be able to get away with operations against except that you can't kill civilians (so no airstrikes) and you can't keep identifiable troops in country.
Second, you have the Taleban where I don't think you have any room at all. Broadly, the Pakistani people might accept tiny operations against Al Qaeda, but anything against the tribal regions would be bigger and seen as a stomp on Pakistan's sovereignity.
And I don't think you could do Al Qaeda without the Taleban flaring up.
I really just don't have any ideas of how you go at this, even without the complications of the Pakistani military and ISI.
What do you do?
By
mikevotes, at 10:32 AM
Sooner or later you find some Taliban leaders to negotiate with.
By
Anonymous, at 11:22 AM
What do you do?
The answer depends on if you are looking at the short-term or the long-term.
The short-term is easy: invade the FATA and blow off Pakistan.
That would be a long-term disaster, however.
In the long-term, you create specific alliances. You ally with the military to take the ISI out of play. You ally with India to bring the politicians around by fear. AQ and the Taliban aren't going anywhere as long as the ISI backs them, even if they are reduced to mere dozens. The root of the regional instability is the ISI, and leaning on the Pakistani government won't do anything about that. Neutralising the ISI is a huge project and would take at least a decade, and strong support of the Pakistani political and military elite.
By
Todd Dugdale , at 12:59 PM
Anon, I think that's the best choice, the problem is they're likely to require Afghanistan, or at least the southern and eastern parts. This whole thing has a racial/nationalist Pashtun element that doesn't get mentioned much.
.....
Todd, Fair ideas, but do you think the Pakistani military could win in a struggle with the ISI?
I wouldn't doubt you could get the politicians on board, they'd love to push the ISI back, but is the Pakistani military free from influence? Could you work within the military leadership or would there have to be a purge first.
I don't know. I don't know enough about it, but I am just hopeless about this mess right now.
By
mikevotes, at 2:34 PM
"This whole thing has a racial/nationalist Pashtun element that doesn't get mentioned much."
It's the core of the matter. These are people who don't have or want much in the way of material comforts. They enjoy fighting. Killing infidels gives meaning to their lives. There is something absurd about grainfed Western boys trying to force them to become good Walmart customers. But I guess it makes a good training ground for NATO and testing new weapons.
By
Anonymous, at 2:39 PM
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