The enthusiasm gap
One of the stories I don't see written enough is the enthusiasm gap between the campaigns,
As another measure,
I've said it before, but, I think it's very important. There is no group passionate about a John McCain candidacy, not the religious right, not the anti-tax people, not even a band of veterans.... That equates to far fewer volunteers, far fewer phone callers, door knockers, envelope stuffers, far fewer election day volunteers. For McCain, alot of that work will now have to be paid.
Meanwhile, the Obama campaign is swimming in volunteers.
Don't underestimate this gap. A volunteer gap like this is probably worth several percentage points on election day. This is not a small thing.
For now, the numbers favor Obama: 38 percent of his supporters say the election is exciting compared with 9 percent of McCain's. Sixty-five percent of Obama's backers say they are hopeful about the campaign, double McCain's, and the Democrat's supporters are three times likelier to express pride.
As another measure,
At political gift stores across America, Barack Obama schlock is outselling John McCain schlock at least five to one, according to interviews NBC News conducted with gift-shop retailers and t-shirt manufacturers.
I've said it before, but, I think it's very important. There is no group passionate about a John McCain candidacy, not the religious right, not the anti-tax people, not even a band of veterans.... That equates to far fewer volunteers, far fewer phone callers, door knockers, envelope stuffers, far fewer election day volunteers. For McCain, alot of that work will now have to be paid.
Meanwhile, the Obama campaign is swimming in volunteers.
Don't underestimate this gap. A volunteer gap like this is probably worth several percentage points on election day. This is not a small thing.
posted by mikevotes at
7:31 AM
5 Comments:
McCain is little more than the default candidate for those that fear and hate Obama: the anti-Obama.
A mannequin would almost serve the same purpose.
That's not to say McCain can't win, but if he does win he enters office with everything stacked against him and extremely little political capital. He wouldn't be the guy that America believes in, but rather the guy that kept Obama out of the Oval Office.
As for the "volunteer gap" watch for military reservists being pressured into those positions.
If turnout is high on election day and lines are long, McCain 'supporters' will be far more likely to say "screw it" and leave without voting. The harder the GOP makes it to vote, the more likely it is that the GOP will bear the heavier cost of that situation, simply because McCain's support is so weak that people won't be willing to jump through hoops.
However, it's doubtful that the Republicans realise this. They seem to mentally be in 2000, speaking to an electorate that existed in 2000.
By
Todd Dugdale , at 9:22 AM
I don't understand. Military reservists being pressed into McCain service? Who's pressing them?
And "turning around at the polls" is one facet of the enthusiasm gap that I left out. Whereas, I would think those famous lines in Ohio of 2004 would probably stay very full.
By
mikevotes, at 11:21 AM
Military reservists being pressed into McCain service? Who's pressing them?
Nobody at the moment.
I'm saying that's a potential source of "volunteers". Bush loyalists lean on reserve commanders, and reserve commanders "remind" the reservists that they are under consideration to be deployed, while implying that this decision could be influenced by a little door-to-door work for the McCain campaign. Much more subtle than that, of course, but the result would be to get men in uniform shilling for McCain...for free.
By
Todd Dugdale , at 11:35 AM
Okay. I didn't understand, but your scenario would be tough to pull off. No way something formalized like that doesn't leak and then it blows up.
I think a "pull" would be more likely than a push. McCain campaign launching a "reservists answering the call" PR thingy, lots of photos, that kinda thing.
By
mikevotes, at 4:18 PM
I think a "pull" would be more likely than a push.
Yeah, you're right there.
Still, I look at the stuff Doan tried and how desperate the GOP is, and I think they could be stupid enough to get caught "pushing".
OTOH, they're also stupid enough to simply put regular volunteers into uniforms and present themselves as reservists, but that wouldn't get them the free labour.
Something stupid this way comes, in one form or another.
By
Todd Dugdale , at 4:53 PM
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