Political bits
Per WaPo, through April, Obama has raised $272 million, McCain $122 million. Per the NYTimes graphic, 55% of Obama's donors are $500 or less. New fundraising reports due out today.
Then there's that little underreported matter that McCain has violated the FEC's public financing law, too.
(AP) Kansas Gov and potential Obama VP Kathleen Sibelius is making a whole lot of appearances in Ohio.
And, here's something I've been wondering about, with McCain's seemingly poor chances, how does that play out with the big GOP money and 527's?
(This article paints it as hesitance to 527 for McCain because he might denounce them, but I see it more practically. I think this is more tied to McCain's chances than anything else.
Why pour money into a losing campaign, risk the potential costs of being an enemy of the next president and Dem dominant Congress, all for a guy who you don't like and who doesn't like you?)
Then there's that little underreported matter that McCain has violated the FEC's public financing law, too.
(AP) Kansas Gov and potential Obama VP Kathleen Sibelius is making a whole lot of appearances in Ohio.
And, here's something I've been wondering about, with McCain's seemingly poor chances, how does that play out with the big GOP money and 527's?
The truth is that, less than five months before Election Day, there are no serious anti-Obama 527s in existence nor are there any immediate plans to create such a group.
Conversations with more than a dozen Republican strategists find near unanimity in the belief that, at some point, there will be a real third-party effort aimed at Obama. But not one knows who will run it, who will pay for it, what shape it will eventually take or when such a group may form.
More worrisome for Republicans who believe such an outside attack apparatus is essential to defeating Obama, some key individuals and groups who were being looked to for help say they won’t be involved.....
(This article paints it as hesitance to 527 for McCain because he might denounce them, but I see it more practically. I think this is more tied to McCain's chances than anything else.
Why pour money into a losing campaign, risk the potential costs of being an enemy of the next president and Dem dominant Congress, all for a guy who you don't like and who doesn't like you?)
posted by mikevotes at
8:02 AM
8 Comments:
It's pretty clear that the McCain campaign has pinned a lot of their hopes on the 527s doing the dirty work while McCain keeps his hands clean. Freedom Watch is one example that comes to mind. It's just a little early in the game for these kind of outfits to come into play.
However, if the 527s follow the same game plan as McCain's campaign, they will mostly be deployed in red states. In a very real sense, McCain is still running a primary campaign to consolidate his base, which is starting to crumble at the edges.
I fully expect "Obama is a communist", "Obama is a Muslim appeaser", and assorted "Hollywood values" attack ads from the 527s, but not here in Minnesota.
As you pointed out in your "Is McCain Trying To Lose?" post, his campaign is schizophrenic. He's the nice guy that hates war, he's the strong guy that will protect your family, he's a maverick, and he's Bush's third term. Twenty years ago this kind of campaign would have had a chance with isolated media markets, but the internet cuts across all of that. The proof is that a guy in Minnesota is posting on a Texan's blog about the national campaign.
By
Todd Dugdale , at 12:11 PM
Yeah, but they should be talking about it and lining up the money. The early strategy of "not coordinating with the campaign" should be taking shape about now.
(And Freedom's Watch has kind of imploded. They would need some other money men to come in and take over.)
Interesting thought that they will work the defensive in the red states. That would alleviate alot of the McCain worries about being stretched financially, and it would be less likely to carry damage or confuse message.
By
mikevotes, at 1:29 PM
Yeah, but they should be talking about it and lining up the money. The early strategy of "not coordinating with the campaign" should be taking shape about now.
Yeah, I know. It's almost like they are screwed, or something. Like the people with the money aren't willing to gamble on him anymore. Like the 2006 elections indicated some kind of weird trend. Like the words "liberal" and "traitor" don't have have the talismanic effect that they once did.
I know, I know, I know that it's still early in the game. But McCain's best bet is for Obama to implode, and the smart money is on McCain taking a swing at some hapless reporter or heckler in the rare case that he appears in an audience that is not hand-picked.
When they have to rely on Giuliani to bolster their foreign policy credentials, it's bloody well over. Nobody will bet their own money on a horse like that. And they aren't.
By
Todd Dugdale , at 2:47 PM
That's my bet. That this is a case of "smart money," people thinking they can get more bang giving to PAC's or think tanks, or (gasp) democrats or just sitting on their hands.
Curious question. What kind of wold swing does McCain take if he looks significantly out of it in the summer, or in the fall?
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mikevotes, at 3:23 PM
What kind of swing does McCain take if he looks significantly out of it in the summer, or in the fall?
A right uppercut. You heard it here first.
By
Todd Dugdale , at 4:25 PM
... the smart money is on McCain taking a swing at some hapless reporter or heckler ...
If thought about the possible McCain meltdown moment, but lately, as I look at the charisma and virility gap between the two candidates, I wouldn't rule out a McCain hospital stay... for a fall or a health issue.
By
-epm, at 8:00 PM
Todd, you know what I meant. What's the desperate ploy? Attacks on terrorism? Cries of treason? raice baiting? What do I have to look forward to?
....
EPM, That would be the end of him. I would expect the more likely would be private treatments and rest during an extended "campaign strategy session."
PS. He did manage o have outpatient surgery in February and the press didn't know.
By
mikevotes, at 9:52 PM
Todd, you know what I meant. What's the desperate ploy? Attacks on terrorism? Cries of treason? raice baiting? What do I have to look forward to?
Ultra-patriotism and Iron Will-type stuff, along with "Obama is a communist". Intense photo ops with the troops, speeches to the troops, deification of the troops.
This will be seasoned with "Obama will raise your taxes sky-high" and "liberal values". Scare us and offer us a chance to get on the "right side" where all will be forgiven. Lots of McCainocrat stuff.
The 527s will hit the race-baiting part. "He's not one of us". "People just like you are afraid of him". "Obama has secrets". Black people expressing doubts over his leadership. Illegal immigrants expressing a favourable view of him. Convicted criminals love him. Child molesters fear a McCain White House. Your kids will "go gay" if the liberals take over.
uh-oh. The crystal ball is getting hazy again.
By
Todd Dugdale , at 12:49 PM
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