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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Monday, June 02, 2008

McCain vs. Obama

Just something to ponder that seems to run counter to what the pundits and Clinton campaign are shouting. (From a GOP pollster.)
McCain is not doing well enough among men to bridge the historical gender gap with women. The presidential voting pattern for the last 20 years suggests that the Republican candidate needs to win among men by at least 8-12 points to make up for the party’s usual gender gap with women. The so-called gender gap is not one-sided. McCain wins men by four points but loses women(to Obama) by 10 points. This is a problem......

Obama is cutting into historical GOP success with white voters. At this point, McCain is only winning the white vote by two points. Compare that to 2004 when Bush beat Kerry among white voters by 17 points (58% to 41%).....

McCain is winning among evangelicals by 25 points, getting 56% of that vote. However, this is 22 points below what Bush got against Kerry in 2004 (78%). In fact, Bush captured 80% of the evangelical vote in 2000 against Gore.


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