Well, the Mahdi isn't losing.....
Let's start off with Juan Cole's observation that one of the reasons for Maliki undertaking this attack on the Mahdi is the complex multi-sided politics of Iraq,
We probably should add that both the Maliki government and the Bush administration are keenly aware that after the US election, the Iraqis will likely begin losing at least some of their US backstop. (Provincial elections in October originally planned as a "success" for McCain?)
Right now, the US and Britain are stepping in "to assist" the Iraqis. (WaPo) The US is rolling into Sadr City, and (AP) The British jets have begun to drop bombs on targets in Basra (Iraqis designating targets or British troops on the ground?)
(BBC) Maliki has had "to extend" the deadline of his ultimatum by 10 days. (He went in to "personally supervise" the operation, and now he's stuck there.)
The evidence seems to be that the Iraqi forces have made no dent in the Sadrist neighborhoods in Basra, and we have reports that (TimesOnline) sections of Baghdad have been taken over by the Mahdi and "members of his own security forces defected."
(NYTimes) The violence has also spread into the critical towns on the southern edge of Baghdad, Nasiriyah and Mahmoudiya. (These are important because they are on the main roads out of Baghdad to the south.)
(PS. The Iraqi government is trying to retake those parts of Basra (a city of 2 million) with a force of 30,000 (15,000 Basra police and 15,000 soldiers.)
What are their sectarian makeups? All SIIC/Badr? Are there Sunnis in this Shia mess? Mahdi sympathizers/defectors/spies?)
(And this "surprise offensive" comes just a week after Cheney visited.)
My reading is that the US faced a dilemma in Iraq. It needed to have new provincial elections in an attempt to mollify the Sunni Arabs, especially in Sunni-majority provinces like Diyala, which has nevertheless been ruled by the Shiite Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq. But if they have provincial elections, their chief ally, the Islamic Supreme Council, might well lose southern provinces to the Sadr Movement.
We probably should add that both the Maliki government and the Bush administration are keenly aware that after the US election, the Iraqis will likely begin losing at least some of their US backstop. (Provincial elections in October originally planned as a "success" for McCain?)
Right now, the US and Britain are stepping in "to assist" the Iraqis. (WaPo) The US is rolling into Sadr City, and (AP) The British jets have begun to drop bombs on targets in Basra (Iraqis designating targets or British troops on the ground?)
(BBC) Maliki has had "to extend" the deadline of his ultimatum by 10 days. (He went in to "personally supervise" the operation, and now he's stuck there.)
The evidence seems to be that the Iraqi forces have made no dent in the Sadrist neighborhoods in Basra, and we have reports that (TimesOnline) sections of Baghdad have been taken over by the Mahdi and "members of his own security forces defected."
(NYTimes) The violence has also spread into the critical towns on the southern edge of Baghdad, Nasiriyah and Mahmoudiya. (These are important because they are on the main roads out of Baghdad to the south.)
(PS. The Iraqi government is trying to retake those parts of Basra (a city of 2 million) with a force of 30,000 (15,000 Basra police and 15,000 soldiers.)
What are their sectarian makeups? All SIIC/Badr? Are there Sunnis in this Shia mess? Mahdi sympathizers/defectors/spies?)
(And this "surprise offensive" comes just a week after Cheney visited.)
posted by mikevotes at
6:53 AM
3 Comments:
Look, after the criminally perverse cock-up Cheney/Bush made of this from day one -- culminating in the forced elections that resulted in this joke of a "government" in Iraq -- this is as good as it's going to get... An American military lid on an Iraqi pressure cooker.
It's been five years of a "strategy" based on a fantastical perception of un-reality. Ignoring real problems to fight phantom ones, and obsessing on neighborhoods while ignoring the larger picture.
Nothing will change until there are people of wisdom and character are in the White House, and the current Iraqi "government" is swept clean and reconstituted.
Talk about needing a do-over! Forget MI and FL.
By
-epm, at 10:03 AM
These are all signs of success in Iraq....I forget who said that.
By
Anonymous, at 11:07 AM
EPM, that's what McCain was referring to in his "100 years" comment. Realistically, a looooong term US presence is the only way to try and maintain the precarious and artificial status quo.
The US presence is now being held hostage by the Maliki government.
....
Anon, I'm not sure whether it was Bush or McCain, but I think it says alot that I can't tell.
By
mikevotes, at 1:35 PM
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