Sadr's next move.

I know we're all politics all the time right now, but Muqtada al Sadr's statement the other day may be a really big deal. It's being interpreted very differently by different western reporters. I saw one yesterday framing it that Sadr was trying to explain his visible absence to his supporters, but the two today seem more ominous.

CNN reports it as Sadr saying his influence is waning, that some elements are splitting from his pure goals of an Islamic state. More troublingly, the Chicago Tribune reports it as Sadr saying he's dropping out of politics all together.

And while this may sound like a good thing, Sadr stepping back, it would also mean that he's releasing the Mahdi Army from his promises of a ceasefire (or at least distancing himself from those who plan to abandon the ceasefire anyhow.)

(On the other hand, fracturing Sadr's movement does give the US a clearer hand at going after some of these Mahdi groups.)

As always, Juan Cole's opinion, (not as ominous,) Sadr is trying to echo the "Twelfth Imam" and plans to let the US clean out his ranks before re-emerging around the March elections.