.comment-link {margin-left:.6em;}

Born at the Crest of the Empire

Thursday, March 13, 2008

Picture of the Day


  • The spin coming out of PA is going to be like an F5 tornado.

    Is it going to come down to whose really, viscerally, wants the nomination more? Who is willing to simply do whatever it takes, no holds barred, to get the delegate count up? I think so.

    Six weeks is a long time. It will be a contest to see if Obama can build his candidacy up faster than Hillary can tear it down. I think the racial "white man's burden" lament coming from Hillary surrogates plays well among the PA Dems -- broadly speaking.

    By Blogger -epm, at 8:52 AM  

  • We're a long way out. I'm not really making any predictions at this point.

    Right now the polling is holding pretty firm Clinton, but who knows.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 1:42 PM  

  • I see PA holding pretty strong for Clinton, but she needs to win it big. 10 points might not be enough. It's all about the popular vote now IMO, and she needs to win big in all "her" states (including re-votes in FL & MI)to overcome his lead. Not impossible, but an uphill fight for sure.

    By Anonymous tg, at 2:09 PM  

  • Oh, I'm not making predictions on who wins PA or by what margin. I'm predicting the spin from both camps, whatever the results, will be mind numbing.

    I wonder how long Clinton can keep contributors contributing? I wonder if there's any buyers remorse among those who voted for her in the early states? Or if her campaign created buyer's remorse among early Obama voters?

    I'm really hoping there will be some back-channel stuff going on with the DNC and other power players between now and PA that will bring this thing to a soft landing. Because if the Clinton campaign keeps on its current path of throwing bigger, and bigger kitchen sinks we're going to see a lot of Hillary showing up in YouTube clips in McCain ads when/if Obama's the nominee. It's getting uncomfortable.

    Or maybe that's one of her strategies. To become such a liability to the Dems (all those sound bites and vid clips of her and her surrogates trashing Obama and the race baiting) if she doesnt't get the nominee, the Dems will feel the only way to salvage a November victory is to make her the nominee. Hmmm....

    By Blogger -epm, at 2:15 PM  

  • TG, Agreed. 700,000 votes is a tall hill. Maybe with Florida. How many voters does Florida have?

    I don't have a sense of whether mail in will raise or lower vote, although it will be only Dem party members.


    EPM, I'm willing to bet she wins PA by 10. Not a lock, but that 10 points seems to be well supported by the polling at this point.

    And, that is morphing into her strategy.

    Her only chance to win is through convincing superdelegates to turn against the more neutral position of validating the popular votes.

    As it looks less likely that she will win the pledged delegates, number of states, and the popular vote hill looks taller and taller, his unelectability is the one main argument she has remaining.

    Her best hope is to push that lne to dirty him up enough to raise doubts without crossing over to where people think she needs to just go away.

    (But an extended primary is good for the party, right?)

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 2:37 PM  

  • when a candidate has won only half the amount of the time as her opponent, how can she claim electability? Now she is using poll numbers to try to claim OB is in a downward spiral..."Monty Python Black Knight? You're on in 5 minutes!"

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:48 PM  

  • I think their case is being perceived as weaker again. She got a bump in coverage after Mar. 4, but it seems to be fading.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 9:10 PM  

Post a Comment

<< Home