Obama's "speed dating" efforts
This WaPo article pretty well sums up what I was saying the other day about Obama running out of time in this compressed primary calendar.
Voters who see him, like him, but he's still largely in the phase of "introducing himself" while Clinton's brand is solid and known.
He's closing the polling gap, but he likely won't reach parity by Tuesday. Just not enough time.
(Obama seems to be trying to make up for this deficiency by trying to win the Edwards voters.)
Voters who see him, like him, but he's still largely in the phase of "introducing himself" while Clinton's brand is solid and known.
He's closing the polling gap, but he likely won't reach parity by Tuesday. Just not enough time.
(Obama seems to be trying to make up for this deficiency by trying to win the Edwards voters.)
posted by mikevotes at
8:05 AM
6 Comments:
Well that the thing, isn't it. As suggested on Daily Kos, Hillary is, in effect, the incumbent -- with all the name recognition and machinery that implies -- and Obama is the unknown firebrand. It's like Seabiscuit...
Unless it's a Clinton blow out on 5 Feb, I think a second place Obama still has a shot. The pace slackens a little and becomes more focused after Super Tuesday and tracking polls would indicate that this is to Obama's advantage.
By
-epm, at 9:41 AM
Yeah. A close Obama loss is not th end for him, although I would argue that a Clinton loss would be her end.
And to after Feb. 5, Obama will also be able to go back to focusing on a state or two.
By
mikevotes, at 10:10 AM
Exactly.
But I think the main reason a Clinton loss would be her undoing, it's because her strength is in big states where party politics is more ingrained, like CA and NY. Still... it's been a crazy year so far.
By
-epm, at 11:11 AM
Right. Plus, she's expected to win.
The perception is that Obama is gaining strength and she's sitting pat, so a loss would give the sense that she's been passed.
By
mikevotes, at 11:36 AM
I think it would have to be a real blowout to be decisive for either side. And I don't see that happening--it seems almost certain that both sides will win some states, and that the delegate count won't be terribly lopsided.
Would an Obama win (however you define that) give him an edge and great momentum? Yes. But the momentum in the race has already shifted dramatically a couple of times.
By
Anonymous, at 1:21 AM
I don't know. I really think the Clinton machine could be wounded by a perception of defeat. The media will gleefully feed that narrative if they're given a chance.
Of course, looking at the polling and the way the rules apply for delegates and popular votes, I don't think Obama will likely be in a situation to claim a clear victory.
At best I think he edges, realistically, I think he's a little behind.
By
mikevotes, at 7:34 AM
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