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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Wednesday, January 02, 2008

Picture of the Day



(John Edwards waves from his campaign bus as he leaves a campaign stop in Waukon, Iowa December 27, 2007. REUTERS/John Gress))

posted by mikevotes at 5:42 AM

4 Comments:

  • Nationally, Edwards is like the kid who just missed the school bus, but is running hard to catch it. Iowa is the only place, right now, where he's really a contender in his own right. In NH he's polling just at the edge of first- second-tier.

    If he wins Iowa, I think we could be looking at a whole new ball game. If Clinton comes in third (gasp!), same thing. New game.

    The real race, of course, is the race to exceed expectations and conventional wisdom. If Clinton and Obama come out of Iowa as #1 and #2 (or vice versa) then it's all about point spread and spin.

    Then there's Super Duper Tuesday on 5 Feb. Will the voters in these states follow like sheep, based on IA, NH, (and NV, SC)? The DNC has stripped MI and FL of there delegates, but with this mean a damn thing with regard to influencing the primaries?

    And what the hell is going on with the GOP? Will we see a split between the theocrats and the money changers? Will fear and insecurity be the guiding influence among GOP voters?

    Hold on boys and girls, it's gonna be a bumpy ride.

    By Blogger -epm, at 8:34 AM  

  • I don't see how he catches up across the nation in a month even if he wins Iowa. He's limited in his spending by lower fundraising and his acceptance of matching funds. His organization is present in alot of places but skeletal.

    One of the stories that hasn't gotten too much coverage is the amount of time Edwards spent on Iowa in 2005 and 2006. He was there alot and shaped himself on those issues.

    Interestingly on the GOP side, fear of the brown skinned immigrants is polling better than fear of the brown skinned arabs.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 10:48 AM  

  • True. But if Edwards wins Iowa he becomes the traditional media's superstar. The media loves a Cinderella story. His face will be ubiquitous on air and in print. His wobbly supporters would be bouyed and he just might get enough positive free press to be a real contender on 5 Feb.

    Then again, how will the corporate media treat the anti-corporate Daivd? Will they focus more on hair-doos and the suave silver tongue of that Southern trial lawyer?

    I suppose I don't see how it could happen either. But the primaries are all about "I didn't see that coming." At least in the early stages.

    I'm really interested to see how 5 Feb shakes out. There's been a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth about the undue influence imposed by IA and NH. Maybe I'm a bit sensitive, but damnit, I'm not responsible for voters in later states acting like brainless, goddamn sheep. The best way to neuter the "undue influence" is to VOTE DIFFERENTLY!

    But I digress... Better get more coffee. Decafe this time. As I said. Maybe I'm a little sensitive.

    By Blogger -epm, at 11:37 AM  

  • EPM, I don't see the media favoring Edwards except as the potential pepsi to a Clinton coke.

    And, the influence is mostly from the media who use IA and NH to rule candidates out.

    (PS. I'm a huge fan of the small state primaries first. I'm not crazy about the way caucuses work, but small states first is the only way we have a shot at not quadrenially electing the best funded candidate.

    The door to door isn't perfect, but it's better than elections here in Texas where it's all media buy.)

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 1:22 PM  

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