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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Saturday, January 05, 2008

First poll, Obama +10

Rasmussen has the first poll up showing Obama +10, and you can't even get the site to load.

Politicalwire: Obama 37, Clinton 27, Edwards 19, Richardson 8.

Updates: ARG (Pro-Dem) Obama 38, Clinton 26, Edwards 20.

But the local polls, WMUR and Concord Monitor show it tied.

posted by mikevotes at 11:51 AM

6 Comments:

  • Wow.
    I would have favoured Clinton in New England. Maybe Edwards is doomed, after all. With only a few days between Iowa and NH, the "Iowa bump" is bigger than the Clinton campaign says it is.

    By Blogger Todd Dugdale , at 1:59 PM  

  • Maybe. This is just one poll, and without the site active, we can check the methodology.

    You would figure after NH there's probably going to be alot of inclusion of independents.

    We need more data points, but the feeling right now is huge momentum for Obama, and whether this poll is accurate or not, it definitely feeds into that narrative.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 2:37 PM  

  • Well, it's just one poll. And I've heard grumblings about Rasmussen polling in the past. Zogby as well. I have no idea what kind of track record Rasmussen, but... 10 pts is huge. What's that come down to? a 15 pt change over all?

    I was thinking about the Iowa bump last night. There are only two business days between the polls closing in IA and opening in NH. I'm not sure how effective weekend TV/Radio adverts are. That is, how many people actually are tuned in to the media at all on weekends.

    To me, it's beginning to feel like there's no breathing space between IA and NH.

    By Blogger -epm, at 2:39 PM  

  • There's not any breathing space at all, and it's killing Clinton.

    There was a clip in the NYTimes piece this morning that the Clinton campaign wouldn't be running negative ads because there wasn't enough time for them to work.

    And, I don't know about Rasmussen. And this is just one poll, but it's feeding the wave narrative, and, because it's first, its going to have more impact.

    Tonight's debate, right?

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 3:00 PM  

  • Well this is interesting; three polls showing +10 for Obama.

    Interestingly, at the start of the debates tonight (7pm EST) ABC was showing numbers that had Obama and Clinton tied at 33%. These were CNN/UNH poll. Maybe it was a national poll.

    By Blogger -epm, at 7:55 PM  

  • Actually, it's only two. Sorry, my post was misleading.

    Since the Rasmussen link was dead at the time, I linked to the politicalwire post which contained the Rasmussen results.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 9:30 PM  

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