Well...., here goes nothin'......
There's been no Iraqi reconciliation at all. The Iraqi Parliament stands divided passing only objections to US contractors. The Maliki government still represents only the SIIC and the Kurds, but "the surge" is ending.
If the Iraqis want to fight, they should be ready. They've had six months to reequip, reorganize, and reposition.
(Thus far, it's rarely been wrong to bet the "under" on Iraq.)
The military has started to reverse the 30,000-strong troop increase and commanders are hoping the drop in insurgent and sectarian violence in recent months — achieved at the cost of hundreds of lives — won't prove fleeting.
If the Iraqis want to fight, they should be ready. They've had six months to reequip, reorganize, and reposition.
(Thus far, it's rarely been wrong to bet the "under" on Iraq.)
posted by mikevotes at
1:49 PM
9 Comments:
I'm not sure this is sectarian problem anymore. More like a struggle between nationalists and separatists.
By
Anonymous, at 2:26 PM
I get your point, but I still think the major conflict points will be Sunni/government, and SIIC/Mahdi.
Kurds are in there certainly, but the main arguments look to be about how much the Sunnis get from the Shia as a whole, and how the Shia share is divided.
By
mikevotes, at 4:03 PM
I think it is an emotional issue for a lot of Iraqis not just who gets what. Iraq is still an occupied country. The nationalists want it free and independent. The separatists will settle for something less.
By
Anonymous, at 4:33 PM
I may not be clear by what you mean as separatists. Like the Kurds wanting their own land, the SIIC trying to carve off parts of the south?
By
mikevotes, at 5:03 PM
Right. I think the ultimate goal is a divided Iraq. Some are happy with it, some aren't. I think that's more significant now than the Sunni/Shia divide.
By
Anonymous, at 8:02 PM
Let's not forget the tribal dimensions as well. Part of the surge has been to "Blackwater" the tribal militias into tribal civil security services. This worked great, but now there's pent up frustration as these security teams seek legitimacy by being incorporated into the national security infrastructure... something Maliki's tribe, er, government has been loath to do.
Have we just spent several months arming up the looming civil/secular/tribal wars?
By
-epm, at 8:50 PM
ANon. Gotcha. I still disagree. The Sunnis want their share of the oil money and don't want to be cast into the desert, and the SIIC idependence movement has waned as they have gotten the MAhdi out of the central gov.
...
EPM, That's a whole 'nother layer. Beneath the broad battles, there are the individual power structures vying for control of territory ad power within their factions.
And, yes. We have just spent 6 months arming up the Sunnis. It marks a substantial shift from a non-sectarian endpoint to a carefully balanced sectarian equilibrium. At least that's the idea I think.
By
mikevotes, at 9:08 PM
I'm not sure we disagree at all. I'm just saying that national identity is a powerful force within Iraq. Iraqis are proud of their heritage which predates Western meddling. Of course oil, ethnic and tribal allegiances and religious differences are important too.
By
Anonymous, at 8:50 AM
Yeah.
By
mikevotes, at 11:14 AM
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