Political bits
(Politico) Michigan has just okayed the GOP primary for Jan. 15. (The article outlines how this plays for the GOP candidates.)
(FirstRead) "For the first time, Thompson acknowledged he has to finish in the top three in Iowa in order to remain a viable candidate." (He just set a bar he might not reach.)
Later: (Politico) Look at all the states Giuliani now has to weather to pull of his win Fla strategy. (Iowa, Wyoming, NH, Mich, Nevada, SC.)
(OpenLeft) Obama may do better in the Iowa Caususes because second choice voters will go to Obama rather than Edwards because the 2nd tier candidates don't want to give Edwards anything as they hope to pass him into 3rd. (Bullet point 2: It's complicated, but interesting.)
(RealClear) Iowa's going to matter more because of the short turnaround to NH.
(FirstRead) Thompson talks all nasty about Huckabee in Iowa. (“Well he is, he’s kind of new to the first tier I guess you might say, and so they probably don’t know him as well as they know some of the rest of us,” Thompson said. “But that’s a situation that will be cured shortly.")
And, (CNN) The Senate held a 22 second session to keep Bush from making recess appointments.
(FirstRead) "For the first time, Thompson acknowledged he has to finish in the top three in Iowa in order to remain a viable candidate." (He just set a bar he might not reach.)
Later: (Politico) Look at all the states Giuliani now has to weather to pull of his win Fla strategy. (Iowa, Wyoming, NH, Mich, Nevada, SC.)
(OpenLeft) Obama may do better in the Iowa Caususes because second choice voters will go to Obama rather than Edwards because the 2nd tier candidates don't want to give Edwards anything as they hope to pass him into 3rd. (Bullet point 2: It's complicated, but interesting.)
(RealClear) Iowa's going to matter more because of the short turnaround to NH.
(FirstRead) Thompson talks all nasty about Huckabee in Iowa. (“Well he is, he’s kind of new to the first tier I guess you might say, and so they probably don’t know him as well as they know some of the rest of us,” Thompson said. “But that’s a situation that will be cured shortly.")
And, (CNN) The Senate held a 22 second session to keep Bush from making recess appointments.
posted by mikevotes at
1:15 PM
4 Comments:
Thompson could do it. All he has to do is beat Giuliani, who isn't even running. (But neither is Fred, for all practical purposes).
What will be interesting is how Romney and Huckabee do in Iowa. Huck is coming on strong and Romney is leveling out. Has Romney peaked? Is the only place he has to go, down? But you've already pointed out the folly of general polling in a caucus state, so...
In NH, Romney is the only Republican for whom I've seen TV ads, and yet here too he seems to be leveling off in the polls. What happens when other candidates hit the airwaves in the weeks running up to the NH primary?
By
-epm, at 3:57 PM
I generally agree on Romney and Huckabee, but remember that Romney also has the largest and best organized organization in both states. It certainly couldn't stop a sea change, but it's not nothin'.
I think Thompson is secretly looking for an excuse to end this.
By
mikevotes, at 5:28 PM
Very interesting observation regarding Thompson. Like a depressed and suicidal convict that can't bare to take his own life, he force the cops to shoot... Likewise, Thompson is daring the electorate to kill his candidacy, because he can't say "oops. bad idea."
Completely agree with you on the Romney organization. I'm just wondering if despite that he won't be able to top 30% at the polls. In the political book making of expectations, what is the spread that Romney must beat? He could easily win by 5-9 point and still be considered a loser... given not only his machinery, but he de facto favorite son status as former Mass governor.
This would be more fun if I was Canadian -- Without skin in the game this would be a hoot to observe from the outside... like a pinstriped roller derby!
By
-epm, at 6:43 PM
I've never really thought Romney would be that strong. I think you've discussed his ceiling before, and I do think it's there, and frankly, 5 or 6 weeks from this whole thing kicking off, he's still right at 10% in the national poll.
He's playing his strategy right so far, but I really wonder about the theory that he could build a wave, because I would think such a wave coming out of the early primaries would require a deeply committed core of supporters to ramp up in the other states, and there really doesn't seem to be a deep bench of committed Romney supporters.
But again, he's executing his strategy.
I just don't have any sense of it, but in the end, somebody does have to win, and it's not Thompson, and, barring something weird, not Huckabee.
By
mikevotes, at 8:59 PM
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