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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Thursday, October 18, 2007

The Turks (somewhat) hollow threat

In all the discussion of the politics of the Turkish resolution authorizing cross border operations into Kurdistan, there has been very little discussion of the practicality of such a move.

Without a change in the situation, there's a very real possibility that the Turks might make some sort of visible token incursion at some point to try and move along US and Iraqi government measures aimed at limiting the PKK, but as for a significant or extended operation, I find that idea pretty unlikely.

Anyone who has watched any of the recent conflicts has to recognize the mess the Turks would be stepping into. Israel's disastrous attempt to dislodge Hezbullah. the US's efforts towards insurgents in Iraq, or more exactly, the efforts against the Taleban in the mountains of Pakistan. The Russians in Chechnya.

A Turkish incursion would face an enemy hiding in some godawful mountainous terrain, with local support on both sides of the border. They would have little to no control over the easy flow of almost unlimited armaments coming up from Iraq, and would be limited in their use air support on the Iraqi side of the border.

Perhaps they could "raid" and take out targeted key PKK personnel, but the military aspects of a larger operation are unbelievably daunting.

(AFP) Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on Wednesday said he would support a Turkish incursion into northern Iraq....

1 Comments:

  • I think you're right. The Turks are stymied for now. Another factor is their bid for EU membership being held over their heads. I still think everything hinges on who gets Kirkuk.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:19 AM  

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