The headline says......
Petraeus, Fallon and experts question this assessment, but it did get the "Al-Qaeda In Iraq Reported Crippled" on the WaPo frontpage, and that's all some people wanted.
I would strongly question the use of the word "irreversible." I think "degraded" might be a better term.
And there is an interesting question of Al Qaeda priorities. Unlike a traditional military enemy, we cannot really assess their troop movements, so there is a real question of whether we have "crippled" Al Qaeda or whether they have just "gone quiet" or shifted resources to the Pakistani/Afghani border regions.
The fact that we're talking about reduced Sunni foreign activity in Iraq is good news, but an assessment of victory makes certain assumptions that can't necessarily be supported.
(Later: Probably should add that Al Qaeda in Iraq didn't exist until 2004.)
The U.S. military believes it has dealt devastating and perhaps irreversible blows to al-Qaeda in Iraq in recent months, leading some generals to advocate a declaration of victory over the group, which the Bush administration has long described as the most lethal U.S. adversary in Iraq.
I would strongly question the use of the word "irreversible." I think "degraded" might be a better term.
And there is an interesting question of Al Qaeda priorities. Unlike a traditional military enemy, we cannot really assess their troop movements, so there is a real question of whether we have "crippled" Al Qaeda or whether they have just "gone quiet" or shifted resources to the Pakistani/Afghani border regions.
The fact that we're talking about reduced Sunni foreign activity in Iraq is good news, but an assessment of victory makes certain assumptions that can't necessarily be supported.
(Later: Probably should add that Al Qaeda in Iraq didn't exist until 2004.)
posted by mikevotes at
9:08 PM
7 Comments:
At the same time, the intelligence community, and some in the military itself, worry about underestimating an enemy that has shown great resilience in the past.
REAlly! Naw, come on! I think this time is different. Lets start celebrating.
By
Praguetwin, at 12:16 PM
We keep on treating Al-Qaeda as if it were a regular, conventional military force that seeks to control and occupy territory, when instead it is an irregular force that seeks to foment instability.
By
Todd Dugdale , at 12:26 PM
I agree with todd. "Al Qaeda" is more of a concept -- a model for the exercise of frustrated anger and hate -- than a club.
Whatever the operational capabilities of AQI, the fuel that feeds their fire -- poverty, frustration, hate... -- are only exasperated.
By
-epm, at 12:49 PM
Praguetwin, I saw the banner in my mind.
Todd, and EPm, yeah, with a somewhat fluid membership and different degrees of "allegiance."
PS. How do they know they've cut down on the foreign fighters coming through Syria? If they had accurate information, we would have caught them all coming in, no?
By
mikevotes, at 1:22 PM
"How do they know they've cut down on the foreign fighters coming through Syria? "
Maybe they got it from the NYT... The ol' plant the story then site the report as proof of your veracity.
By
-epm, at 2:29 PM
"How do they know they've cut down on the foreign fighters coming through Syria? "
From intelligence sources of course. I can't say more for security reasons.
By
Anonymous, at 2:37 PM
"How do they know they've cut down on the foreign fighters coming through Syria? "
Because they never knew. If you're "estimating" at one point, you can "estimate" success at another.
By
mikevotes, at 3:04 PM
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