The dirty little secret on Iraq.

The reason there is no political reconciliation in Iraq is because none of the parties has an incentive to come to the table.

The Shia are slowly sweeping Baghdad clean of the Sunni and consolidating their power throughout the government. Because of the Shia stance, the Sunni have more hope of accomplishing their goals through violence than politics. Meanwhile the Kurds are perfectly happy to let Iraq drift into dissolution because it increases the likelihood of their independent Kurdish state.

You can set some random timelines if you want (like this new 5 year plan from the Institute of Peace,) but the bottom line is that within the current situation, all parties inside Iraq have incentives to continue fighting, not come to settlement.

There's a reason that the "reconciliation" measures are being stalled by the Shia dominated government. They're winning. They have no reason to want to reintegrate Sunnis into the government (deBaathification,) no reason to establish oil laws as their influence and share seems likely to grow, and certainly no desire to hold new elections which might dilute their power.

What no one seems to be saying is that, although Maliki is not doing what's in the US interests, he is doing more or less what's in the broader Shia interest right now.

There is no reconciliation because the Iraqis don't want reconciliation.

There. I said it.

(And I recognize the significant intraShia fighting, but I see that more as a winner's squabble over territory, influence, and resources. In the south, it is a direct battle for space, but in Baghdad and beyond it manifests itself as a race for cleansing with Badr and Mahdi racing to claim neighborhoods from the fleeing Sunnis.)