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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Sunday, August 05, 2007

Is it time for the Turks to attack the Kurds in N. Iraq?

Tell me this didn't get my attention,
Turkish leaders this week will give visiting Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki what Turkish military commanders and analysts said could be a final warning to act against anti-Turkey Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq -- or to stand by while Turkish forces go after the rebels themselves, risking a new front in Iraq's war.

Leaders of Turkey's governing Justice and Development Party appear to be in agreement with Turkey's generals that the time has come to move against the Kurdistan Workers' Party....

Definitely worth a read if you're watching that situation.

It is an interesting question of the timing, though. Are the Turks better off striking now while the Kurds are still beholden to the Shia majority over the dispensation of Kirkuk, or would they be better off waiting for a more independent and isolated Kurdish region?

Or are the recent threats more related to the recent Edelman revelation?
Baran and some others expect U.S. forces to join in if Turkey does act against the rebels in northern Iraq. The scenario most often cited is an operation involving U.S. and Turkish special forces already in northern Iraq.....

Eric S. Edelman, a former U.S. ambassador to Turkey and now an undersecretary of defense policy, had secretly briefed U.S. lawmakers that the United States was planning a covert action with the Turkish army against the PKK in northern Iraq. Edelman added that "the U.S. role could be concealed and always would be denied," according to Novak.

The leak of the alleged plans for a U.S.-Turkish operation makes a fully covert mission now impossible, noted Strategic Forecasting, a private intelligence-analysis agency based in Austin.

With the alleged planning made public, "the United States is betting that the Iraqi Kurdish leadership will succumb to pressure to act against the PKK itself, and thus preclude the need for a major Turkish incursion

There's also the interesting comment that the Kurds want to use the PKK as barter for Kirkuk, that the Kurds will crack down if they get their oil city.

If that's the case, why would the US be orchestrating the dismantling of that PKK leverage before Kirkuk's dispensation is agreed? To appease the Turks? To appease the Sunnis/Saudis?

Again, worth the read if you're watching.

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