Iraq
A few days ago, Hamid Karzai stood next to Bush after saying Iran was playing a constructive role in Afghanistan. Now, we have Maliki handholding with Iran. (We're losing the diplomatic war, too.)
McClatchy has a highly blogged article saying, "Vice President Dick Cheney several weeks ago proposed launching airstrikes at suspected training camps in Iraq run by the Quds force, a special unit of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, according to two U.S. officials who are involved in Iran policy." (To me, this smells more like a bit of diplomacy than a revelation. Cheney acts as the crazy "bad cop" in administration diplomacy.)
(NYTimes) Maher Arar was rendered and tortured for nothing.
Iraqslogger looks at the intra-Sunni politics in Anbar. (Is the US arming Sunni groups an effort to undermine the existing Sunni political leadership?)
(WaPo) The Bush administration is trying to use the UN to generate regional Iraq diplomacy. "The move comes as the U.N. Security Council prepares for a vote Friday on a resolution expanding the United Nations' mediation role in Iraq. The resolution would grant the global body a clearer mandate to promote such international talks and to lead diplomatic efforts aimed at uniting Iraq's rival factions."
(Reuters) Attacks are down in Fallujah because of a car ban that has lasted two months.
Last, (ABCNews) Iraq Ambassador Ryan Crocker, "I don't think you can expect instant political progress," he said, "that all of a sudden the level of violence has dropped and therefore political deals that weren't possible three weeks ago are suddenly possible."
(Son of a bitch!!! That was the whole premise of "the surge"!!! Remember? "Breathing Space?"
Hundreds of US soldiers have died based on the misformed premise that it was a lack of security that was preventing political progress, and now you want to hide that lack of progress, the loss of those lives for nothing, behind some sort of "long view?" Go to hell!!! And take the entire policy team with you!!!!)
McClatchy has a highly blogged article saying, "Vice President Dick Cheney several weeks ago proposed launching airstrikes at suspected training camps in Iraq run by the Quds force, a special unit of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, according to two U.S. officials who are involved in Iran policy." (To me, this smells more like a bit of diplomacy than a revelation. Cheney acts as the crazy "bad cop" in administration diplomacy.)
(NYTimes) Maher Arar was rendered and tortured for nothing.
Iraqslogger looks at the intra-Sunni politics in Anbar. (Is the US arming Sunni groups an effort to undermine the existing Sunni political leadership?)
(WaPo) The Bush administration is trying to use the UN to generate regional Iraq diplomacy. "The move comes as the U.N. Security Council prepares for a vote Friday on a resolution expanding the United Nations' mediation role in Iraq. The resolution would grant the global body a clearer mandate to promote such international talks and to lead diplomatic efforts aimed at uniting Iraq's rival factions."
(Reuters) Attacks are down in Fallujah because of a car ban that has lasted two months.
Last, (ABCNews) Iraq Ambassador Ryan Crocker, "I don't think you can expect instant political progress," he said, "that all of a sudden the level of violence has dropped and therefore political deals that weren't possible three weeks ago are suddenly possible."
(Son of a bitch!!! That was the whole premise of "the surge"!!! Remember? "Breathing Space?"
Hundreds of US soldiers have died based on the misformed premise that it was a lack of security that was preventing political progress, and now you want to hide that lack of progress, the loss of those lives for nothing, behind some sort of "long view?" Go to hell!!! And take the entire policy team with you!!!!)
posted by mikevotes at
8:18 AM
8 Comments:
Regarding Iran as a regional actor in Iraq and Afghanistan, why is this seen as a bad thing? If Iran is given more political avenues to act in the region, doesn't that help deflate their perceived need to act covertly and militarily? I think we may be seeing a new Cold War arise with Iran just aching to be taken seriously as a regional (world?) player. We had better finesse this one, cause the blow-back of jingoistically alienating the region will not be good.
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VP Cheney doesn't "play" the bad cop, dude. He frickin' lives it. Seriously, Cheney really is that over the top.
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The UN -- or some other non-US coalition (a real coalition) -- is probably the best hope for bringing Iraq out of the ashes and into the community of functioning nations. But any mission, it seems to me, will have to work integrally with Iraq's neighbors if there's any hope for regional stability. Iraq cannot be an island.
By
-epm, at 8:56 AM
I agree with epm. What's so terrible about Iran co-operating with Iraq? Isn't that what Bush says he wants? It might even bring the Sunni and Shia together or does Bush prefer to see them at each others throats?
In truth I think something bigger is going on here. Putin, Saudi, Karzai, Musharraf have all been showing some independence lately.
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Anonymous, at 9:21 AM
EPM, to some degree, it's the same mistake made with Al Qaeda. By defining the enemy as evil and powerful, you make the enemy more powerful as anti-US groups feel more sympathetic towards Iran.
I think the US issue with Iraq and Afghanistan working with Iran is that the US issues with Iran in those countries are actually the more minor concern, that are being promoted to go after the nuclear program.
We set up the "interference" argument to support the broader issue, and now as it turns bad, it's undermining that bigger argument.
On the UN, the Iraqis really don't like the UN all that much either. They are highly (and rightfully) suspicious of the UN.
Yes, the UN might be the better chance at reconciliation, but as long as the agenda is being driven by US and European interests, the UN will be resisted. If the push comes from China, Russia, or the "second world powers" like Brazil, then maybe it works, but as long as the US is seen to be flexing control, the Iraqis won't bite.
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Anon, Your first line hits what I said above. The second line is far more interesting.
This is what happens as an empire loses control. Provinces and near rivals begin to press and act more independently as the empire loses its influence. Think of the barbarians slowly throwing off control of the Romans, or the series of losses of the British Empire like India, South Africa, etc.
The US still isn't to that point of open revolt among its colonies, but thedrift away is beginning.
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mikevotes, at 11:18 AM
Sounds like a case of 'the emperor has no clothes'.
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Anonymous, at 11:45 AM
"but as long as the agenda is being driven by US and European interests, the UN will be resisted."
Very good point. I alluded to this, but you say it straight out.
The once strong anchor the US once had in international affairs, is not tethered by the single strand of our economic might. While our western allies share a sympathetic nostalgia for what we once were -- and could be again -- we offer nothing to the rest of the world besides money.
Have you checked the market lately... We may even see the world want to distance itself from us economically if this goes unabated, or is seen as a longterm structural cancer of American financial systems.
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-epm, at 11:45 AM
And our western allies are more than happy for the US to take the blowback for what they want to get done.
(As to the market, they can't really distance themselves, at least not suddenly. Foreign investor groups bought the subprimes with the same gusto as the US funds. Now, they can't get out of US currency in a rush because it would tank their other US investments. Let's just hope there's not a stampede.
Now would be a great time for leadership.....)
By the way, the limited UN Sec Council item passed unanimously.
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mikevotes, at 1:17 PM
The foreign markets wont and cant just jump out of the boat, but they will most likely be more cautious with the types of funds they buy into. They will want to make sure that instrument that include secure funds, like US Treasury bonds, are not watered down with other fillers. This, in part, is the problem. It's not like the foreign markets are buying something call "Sub-prime Mortgage Crap."
We'll see. But I expect this will have a medium - long term impact on the caution with which world markets will treat US fund investment.
I just read the headlines regarding the UN Sec Council vote. I'll have to see if this is fig leaf, or stuff of substance. I suspect the former... food for the Bush PR machine to label as progress.
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-epm, at 7:19 PM
I think the longer term outcome is further weakness in the dollar.
And the UN item is mostly symbolic. A minor increase of in country staffing, and all actions are only by the invitation of the Iraqi government.
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mikevotes, at 9:30 PM
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