A thought on the Askariyah mosque bombing in Samarra
Take a second and step back to look at the motivation behind today's inflammatory attack in Samarra.
For a couple weeks, the US has been managing a loose cooperation with local Sunni nationalists and ex-Baathists in an effort to drive Al Qaeda from some key neighborhoods in Baghdad and Diyala.
Suddenly, with this bombing, those local Sunni groups will have to abandon that effort, turning from attacking Al Qaeda to protecting their neighborhoods from a likely Shia response. They may even look to Al Qaeda for help.
If there is no response, Al Qaeda, at the very least, bought themselves some "breathing space" through this bombing.
There may be some chaos tonight, but we'll have to wait a day or two to see if there's any authorized militia response.
Just some stray thoughts.
For a couple weeks, the US has been managing a loose cooperation with local Sunni nationalists and ex-Baathists in an effort to drive Al Qaeda from some key neighborhoods in Baghdad and Diyala.
Suddenly, with this bombing, those local Sunni groups will have to abandon that effort, turning from attacking Al Qaeda to protecting their neighborhoods from a likely Shia response. They may even look to Al Qaeda for help.
If there is no response, Al Qaeda, at the very least, bought themselves some "breathing space" through this bombing.
There may be some chaos tonight, but we'll have to wait a day or two to see if there's any authorized militia response.
Just some stray thoughts.
posted by mikevotes at
10:52 AM
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