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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Saturday, June 02, 2007

The Israelis are fearing a war with Syria

I wouldn't think the Syrians would want this war, but, apparently the Israelis are taking the contingency seriously enough to let it shape their policy. From Haaretz:
The main reason why the Israel Defense Forces is currently not recommending a large-scale ground operation in the Gaza Strip is not talked about much publicly: It is the apprehension that this summer Israel is liable to be engaged in a different war - against Syria....

The intelligence assessments in the northern sector don't appear to have changed radically. As far as is known, the Israeli intelligence community does not have information pointing to clear intentions on the part of Syrian President Bashar Assad to launch a war. However, there are intelligence reports about the preparations Syria is making for such a possibility: training, exercises, major arms deals. Intelligence personnel are finding it difficult to formulate a bottom line: whether Assad truly intends to go to war or whether he is merely taking measures to be on the safe side, while seeking to exert pressure on Israel to renew peace negotiations.

The only circumstance for war I could see would be if the US or Israel attacked Iran and the whole region became unglued.

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