Iraq forever

Thomas Ricks has a major front page story on the emergence of a partial withdrawal/long term presence in Iraq.

U.S. military officials here are increasingly envisioning a "post-occupation" troop presence in Iraq that neither maintains current levels nor leads to a complete pullout, but aims for a smaller, longer-term force that would remain in the country for years.....

Such a long-term presence would have four major components. The centerpiece would be a reinforced mechanized infantry division of around 20,000 soldiers assigned to guarantee the security of the Iraqi government and to assist Iraqi forces or their U.S. advisers if they get into fights they can't handle.

Second, a training and advisory force of close to 10,000 troops would work with Iraqi military and police units. "I think it would be very helpful to have a force here for a period of time to continue to help the Iraqis train and continue to build their capabilities," Odierno said.

In addition, officials envision a small but significant Special Operations unit focused on fighting the Sunni insurgent group al-Qaeda in Iraq. "I think you'll retain a very robust counterterror capability in this country for a long, long time," a Pentagon official in Iraq said.

Finally, the headquarters and logistical elements to command and supply such a force would total more than 10,000 troops, plus some civilian contractors.

This is a fairly responsible way forward (remarkably similar to the ISG,) however, I wonder about the practical application of this.

The real underlying question is left unanswered. Would US troops really sit on the sidelines as Shia militia and death squad groups coupled with Iraqi police sweep through neighborhoods? Would this president (or the next) allow American forces to "guard the borders" as a civil war reopens to take tens of thousands of lives?

The only real way "out" is to accept the civil war.

(I also don't like the seamless way this can (and probably will) be concerted into a permanent, longterm military presence similar to the "Korea model" the administration has been floating.

Because of the politics of this poorly executed war, so long as US troops remain on Iraqi soil, that presence will continue to generate both insurgents in Iraq and terrorists across the broader Muslim world.)

Later: One point of this continued presence is also probably a concession to the Saudis and other Sunni regional powers. Will they similarly sit back and allow a Shiite domination?