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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Wednesday, May 23, 2007

The next level on Iran

Last night it was "leaked" that President Bush signed a finding authorizing nonlethal covert operations intended to destabilize Iran.

Today, in a show of force, the navy sent two carrier groups into the Strait of Hormuz.
"What is special about this is that you have two strike groups. Everybody will see us because it is in daylight." (Rear Admiral Kevin Quinn)....

U.S. and Iranian ambassadors are due to meet on Monday in Baghdad to discuss security in Iraq...

I'm not touching you. I'm not touching you. I'm not touching you.

posted by mikevotes at 7:14 AM

6 Comments:

  • It's like Bush, Inc. is actually trying to f*** (sorry, cant thing of a more fitting verb) things up in the region. Not only does this provoke a confrontation with Iran, it works to make Iraq even less secure.

    By Blogger -epm, at 8:05 AM  

  • I see two ways to look at this.

    1) They really believe that Iraq can be resolved only by going through Iran.

    2) They've given up on Iraq and are now willing to sacrifice it to get at Iran.

    But, regardless, brinksmanship has not been a good policy for this administration.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 8:17 AM  

  • If you've come to the realization that Iraq cannot become a stable country without the help -- or at least co-operation -- of Iran, how does pissing them off help you achieve that goal?

    And what exactly does "get Iran" mean in the mind of Bush?

    It's interesting to me that Ahmadinejad is playing the same political game that Bush is playing: ignoring his opposition and doing whatever the hell he wants, daring anyone to make him stop. Things cannot end well in a confrontation between two men who think that (a) they are unstoppable and (b) in power because it is the will of God.

    By Blogger -epm, at 8:36 AM  

  • 1) You've heard the administration say that Iran is the main bad outside actor in Iraq. Not necessarily true, but if they believe that, resolving Iran's role is critical, and of course this admin does that through brinksmanship.

    2) In "get at Iran" what I was trying to say is that they're trying to go after Iran's government and its nuclear program.

    I don't endorse either of these, but that's the interpretations I see of the actions.

    And, be careful about calling people crazy. They do have a rationale for what they're doing. It may be unsound, but the key to dealing with them is to dig into their reasoning.

    Ahmadinejad isn't politically crazy. I might question his evaluations of the odds, but he';s gambling that he can tie the US up in Iraq long enough to develop a nuclear deterrent to a significant US attack on his country. He's playing a dangerous game, but it is coherent.

    And, as I was pointing out in the bullets above, I don't agree with the Bush policy, but they are working within their own arguments.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 8:56 AM  

  • "They really believe that Iraq can be resolved only by going through Iran." Mike this is exactly what I am afraid that Bush and Cheney have concluded. Coupled with promoting Israel's concerns about Iran, that looks like a twofer.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:37 PM  

  • And, it fits with the overall neocon strategy to "remake the middle east."

    No matter how battered this theoretical structure is, so long as Dick Cheney and his fellow cultists lurk within the halls of Washington, this ridiculous grand solution will still be around.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 3:34 PM  

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