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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Monday, May 21, 2007

Is Immigration a White House respite or a devious Democratic plan?

Regardless of how messy the debate gets, the proposed immigration legislation is a political "favor" for the Republicans and the White House.

Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell suggests that debate will need to "go on for at least a couple of weeks," but during that time, most Republicans will attack the plan, shoring up their "base" credentials and proving their distance from the White House on this very public issue.

The White House, on the other hand, is guaranteed lots of headlines around something it would rather talk about than Iraq, Gonzales, etc.

What do the Dems get out of doing this now?

Later: A theory inspired by Atrios: Immigration separates the "money/business" side of the party from the "nativist" elements, so maybe, for the Dems, this is about separating the business donors from the Republican party?

Are the Dems that smart?

(Later: Or, maybe the Dems are going to cave on the Iraq war funding, and wanted all the Republican rancor to cover their concession.)

7 Comments:

  • Is is possible for Americans to be any more upset with the President's handling of Iraq? Rather than beating that dead horse, do the Dems benefit by opening up another divide in the republican party? The MSM buzz will not be about the Dems support for immigration reform, but about the "Republicans in disarray," thus moving the zeitgeist further against Republicans.

    This could be a side effect of the immigration debate, but I doubt it's the reason for it. The Dems have a lot to lose from their base too. They had better start addressing the labor issues up front.

    By Blogger -epm, at 10:32 AM  

  • I'd certainly buy that. This debate will very publicly bring out the ugly side.

    The unions are actually somewhat mixed. About ten years ago, they began to pull in immigrant workers in an effort to expand their numbers, so now their position is not quite as cut and dried as it was a few years ago.

    And, maybe the Dems are going to cave on Iraq war funding, and wanted some immigration noise to dampen the story?

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 11:02 AM  

  • The unions are indeed mixed. That's why I think the Dems need to get out in front of this. The idea of illegal immigrants taking American jobs transcends just union members. If the unions play this right, they could spin the PR and maybe turn the tide of membership decline -- and I mean with the "native" population, not just the LEGAL immigrant population.

    What I'm not clear on -- and would vigorously oppose -- is a "guest worker" program that provides for NEW people to travel into the states for temporary work. This, in my opinion, is strictly a wage suppression tactic for business.

    By Blogger -epm, at 12:04 PM  

  • I'm a bit out of the mainstream on all of this because I don't believe we're in an "immigration crisis."

    It's my opinion that the higher wage manufacturing, technical, software, and call center jobs being taken out of the US are a far more significant problem than very low wage ag jobs and busboys being filled by illegals.

    I do believe that some resolution must be found for the educational and healthcare problems, but frankly, other than those societal burdens, the vast illegal immigrant community here in Houston contributes rather than detracts from my city.

    Just my opinion.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 2:20 PM  

  • "It's my opinion that the higher wage manufacturing, technical, software, and call center jobs being taken out of the US are a far more significant problem than very low wage ag jobs and busboys being filled by illegals."

    True. But the illegals are in many ways to our society what the Jews were in 1930s Germany: the scapegoats for all the ills of a frustrated class of people. I have heard all sorts of wild accusations made about immigrants (regardless of status). There are many real issues that we need to address with regard to illegal immigrants and their role in -- and affect on -- our country. But for a HUGE number of Americans (majority?), they are simply content to hate them and to blame them for everything from the price of health insurance to the national debt, from national security to why their kids are failing in school.

    This is a red meat issue that will be emotionally exploited for political effect.

    By Blogger -epm, at 8:15 PM  

  • Definitely a red meat issue, but that has very little to do with the actual social consequences of illegal immigration and more to do, as you say, with gut reaction.

    And, I probably should have included the broader issue of wage deflation in my list of problems.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 9:23 PM  

  • By Blogger John, at 11:47 PM  

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