Sadr's withdrawal
The top story is unquestionably the Sadr block giving up its ministries.(AP, AFP, WaPo) However, I'm fascinated at the selectiveness of the move. Sadr's block is maintaining their full presence in the parliament while openly saying they will not bring a no confidence vote.
(When Sadr withdrew his parliamentarians in January, the parliament ground to a halt because, with so many MP's hiding out of the country, without Sadr they couldn't hit a quorum.)
So, although dropping the ministries certainly poses immediate political problems for Maliki and a loss of graft and patronage for Sadr, Sadr is neither giving up his influence in parliament or attempting to bring down the government.
This is just a very public political move that will allow Sadr to position himself once again as an outsider, separating his political movement from any unpopular decisions by the government while not wholly giving up his political bartering power.
He can once again return to the nationalist, anti-government position that fuelled his original rise. I think he's consolidating by giving up these ministries.
We should also probably recognize this an indication of the growing anti-US sentiment among the Shia community in the face of the increased bombings.
(When Sadr withdrew his parliamentarians in January, the parliament ground to a halt because, with so many MP's hiding out of the country, without Sadr they couldn't hit a quorum.)
So, although dropping the ministries certainly poses immediate political problems for Maliki and a loss of graft and patronage for Sadr, Sadr is neither giving up his influence in parliament or attempting to bring down the government.
This is just a very public political move that will allow Sadr to position himself once again as an outsider, separating his political movement from any unpopular decisions by the government while not wholly giving up his political bartering power.
He can once again return to the nationalist, anti-government position that fuelled his original rise. I think he's consolidating by giving up these ministries.
We should also probably recognize this an indication of the growing anti-US sentiment among the Shia community in the face of the increased bombings.
posted by mikevotes at
8:16 AM
4 Comments:
I've been waiting to hear your take on this since the story broke this morning over here.
I think you have it pretty spot on. I think he is keeping some cards in his deck so he can still play politics. Perhaps he will put further pressure on Maliki before getting out of politics altogether.
Hard to know what is going on, but when I read that Sadr's MPs were staying on, I realized it was a political move meant to hit the headlines without much diminishing his political power.
Brilliant.
By
Praguetwin, at 10:06 AM
Yeah, I saw the pre-stories last night, but I wanted to wait and read the actual statement, because as big a deal as this is, 8 hours doesn't make a big difference in discussing it.
I think your last paragraph hit it. They made the bigger but less meaningful move.
I would also add that this says something about his funding. Most of the ministries are peppered with patronage and ghost jobs to allow the minister to pay off his political rivals, as well as blatant graft.
Sadr willing to give this up tells me that either he doesn't need the money or that he's willing to pay that high price for4 the political position.
My guess is largely number one. The next question would be where his money's coming from. Iranian government, rich Shia businessmen, smuggling, extortion, kidnapping?
No idea, but they are able to fund their militia as well as some moderate social programs in Shia bastions.
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 10:12 AM
The next question would be where his money's coming from. Iranian government, rich Shia businessmen, smuggling, extortion, kidnapping?
All of the above?
Good point on the money. That hadn't even occurred to me.
By
Praguetwin, at 2:51 AM
And it'a a fair amount of money.
50,000 militia members, to pay, feed, and arm, a political operation, and the social services operation.
By
mikevotes, at 7:04 AM
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