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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Tuesday, April 03, 2007

The Obama campaign had better deliver

By delaying the announcement of their fundraising total, the Obama campaign has really opened the speculation and attention towards their results. The longer they wait, the bigger the expectations become.

How big a surprise is coming?

posted by mikevotes at 8:11 AM

5 Comments:

  • How big a surprise is coming?

    And, as you point out, will it be a good surprise or a bad surprise.

    I'm uncommitted to any candidate so I wouldn't be devastated no matter what the news is, but I can't see how this much of a delay in reporting portends good news. Is Obama's youthful appeal a double edged sword? A lot of energy from a pool with very little cash?

    Time will tell

    By Blogger -epm, at 8:34 AM  

  • My guess is the opposite. You get bad news out quickly and hold good news to try and build suspense.

    I think he's going to turn in a number competitive with Clinton (minus her $10 million from the Senate campaign) somewhere around the $22-$25 million mark.

    But, the longer we wait, the bigger surprise I'm expecting.

    Mike

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 8:43 AM  

  • Your number is the same as what the right wing sites are reporting. I don't expect a surprise, but what do I know?

    By Blogger Praguetwin, at 8:51 AM  

  • Hmmm. We'll see. Unless Obama's numbers actually surpass Clinton's I don't see the value of the delay. Clinton had the spotlight for a couple of news cycles for being "the" fund raising leader by a long shot. If Obama was close ($22M) then the headlines would be about a horse race, not how great and powerful Hillary is.

    Trying to understand political strategy gives me a headache.

    By Blogger -epm, at 9:01 AM  

  • Praguetwin, I was just guessing inside the consensus, and the rightwing sites play an outsized role in setting that consensus.

    ....

    EPM, I think there's a chance he's out the top, but anything close would give him a "horse race" story.

    Look at Romney, mid single digits in the polls, and yet he's treated as a contender.

    A serious Obama money challenge could make the pundits overlook the distance in the polls.

    And right now, that "free media" is all anyone's getting, so it's tone really matters.

    Again, the longer they wait, the higher upside I would expect.

    Mike

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 9:17 AM  

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