Iraq is worse than a civil war
Many have made these arguments in the past, but having it included formally in the NIE should have more force. (NIE in .pdf)
I'm sure the White House takeaway will be this part,
Take the five minutes to read the whole key judgements section(starts page 6.)
(I'm really surprised this wasn't a 4:30PM Friday release. I guess it's big enough they can only sort of hide it.)
The early administration defense seems to be, "Yes, we agree with the NIE that there is only a slight chance that the surge will work, but that's better than the alternatives." (Later: Hadley making this case on video.) (More Hadley "not a a civil war.")
"Nevertheless, even if violence is diminished, given the current winner-take-all attitude and sectarian animosities infecting the political scene, Iraqi leaders will be hard pressed to achieve sustained political reconciliation in the time frame of this Estimate." (12-18 months.)....
The Intelligence Community judges that the term “civil war” does not adequately capture the complexity of the conflict in Iraq, which includes extensive Shia-on-Shia violence, al-Qa’ida and Sunni insurgent attacks on Coalition forces, and widespread criminally motivated violence. Nonetheless, the term “civil war” accurately describes key elements of the Iraqi conflict, including the hardening of ethno-sectarian identities, a sea change in the character of the violence, ethno-sectarian mobilization, and population displacements.
I'm sure the White House takeaway will be this part,
If Coalition forces were withdrawn rapidly during the term of this Estimate, we judge that this almost certainly would lead to a significant increase in the scale and scope of sectarian conflict in Iraq, intensify Sunni resistance to the Iraqi Government, and have adverse consequences for national reconciliation.
Take the five minutes to read the whole key judgements section(starts page 6.)
(I'm really surprised this wasn't a 4:30PM Friday release. I guess it's big enough they can only sort of hide it.)
The early administration defense seems to be, "Yes, we agree with the NIE that there is only a slight chance that the surge will work, but that's better than the alternatives." (Later: Hadley making this case on video.) (More Hadley "not a a civil war.")
posted by mikevotes at
10:52 AM
4 Comments:
Another refreshing admission:
"Iraq’s neighbors influence, and are influenced by, events within Iraq, but the involvement of these outside actors is not likely to be a major driver of violence or the prospects for stability because of the self-sustaining character of Iraq’s internal sectarian dynamics."
Don't like that the report fails to admit the economic dimension of the conflict. The closest they get is acknowledging that there is intra-sectarian violence.
By
Matteo Tomasini, at 2:44 PM
Agreed, but in my opinion, the economics will follow everything else. How much traffic can the markets carry when people are afraid to leave their homes?
Plus, I would guess that's the area that is least subject to NIE type analysis.
But you do make a good point that the third leg of the security, political, economic soluttion is not really covered.
Maybe that's a function of the short 12-18 month time window?
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 3:11 PM
I believe the economic situation is directly related to the security situation and as such any strategy to end the violence and stabilize the country must address it.
Quick points:
1) there is 50-60% unemployment among Iraqi youth- lacking alternatives to support themselves and their families, these Iraqis join the militias and criminal syndicates that have been fueling violence in Iraq. An effective jobs program would have an immediate impact on the level of violence in Iraq.
2) much of the intra-sectarian violence I alluded to in the first post has economic roots. For example the Shia v. Shia in the south who fight over control of oil pipelines.
3) Though the level of sectarian violence is the primary cause of the displacement crisis, there is a huge economic dimension to the crisis that must not be overlooked: There is a strong incentive for members of the sectarian militias to come into neighborhoods and expel residents purely for economic gain.
4) think of all the money wasted on all those disastrous, ill-advised reconstruction projects. Money which could have gone to equipping the US and Iraqi troops on which are currently relying on
I'd go on and wish I could have written more about the above, but I have to get back to work (a lot of my blog posts flesh out these points if you are interested). The point is an effective strategy must address all three dimensions of the conflict at the same time. And contrary to what some people have said, it is possible to address the economic even in the most unstable and violent of areas, just look at successes of CERP and CAP.
As fundamental as the economic dimension is to the conflict- a point which the administration and several top generals have admitted- it does in fact surprise me that the NIE left it out. After all they do address the process of reconciliation, which I'd consider further outside of their scope and is certainly more open to debate than the idea of economic recovery. (not saying that reconciliation shouldn't take place, only that there is a considerable amount of study that needs to take place before we can determine when it should take place. Past examples have shown us that rushing the reconciliation process can actually further polarize the groups in question)
cheers,
Matteo
By
Matteo Tomasini, at 4:05 PM
I fully agree with your premise, I just don't see how you could pull it off.
Any large jobs/makework program would likely make the participants targets. There is no real viability for any sort of large scale export. For the most part, markets have greatly reduced and store fronts are currently targets for attack and extortion.
The only real options I see would be either makework/public works projects, picking up garbage or digging ditches, sewer lines or maybe some sort of subsidized factory targeting internal sales (maybe generators?)
The US tried the former in the early days (remember all the work on public parks and such?) and is apparently about to try some form of the latter.
We'll have to wait and see, but my hunch is that the jobs will be divided like fiefs where the Shia sects will control the different job arenas requiring a tithe back.
I don't know where I'm going with all this. I just have a feeling that any such program would turn its participants into targets. It's definitely necessary, I'm just not optimistic.
Thanks for the thoughtful comment. Without question, you're right, I just don't see how you do the economic side on any significant scale without security and political improvement.
(Maybe all this is in the classified version? Can't imagine why, but you never know.)
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 5:04 PM
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