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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Monday, December 11, 2006

US to oust Maliki?

There's nothing directly in this article saying the US is behind this, but it's the Hadley memo writ large and follows shortly after Bush's meeting with Al-Hakim and just before "a key figure in the proposed alliance, Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi, a Sunni Arab, left for Washington on Sunday for a meeting with Bush at least three weeks ahead of schedule."
Major partners in Iraq's governing coalition are in behind-the-scenes talks to oust Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki amid discontent over his failure to quell raging violence, according to lawmakers involved.

The talks are aimed at forming a new parliamentary bloc that would seek to replace the current government and that would likely exclude supporters of the radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who is a vehement opponent of the U.S. military presence.

The new alliance would be led by senior Shiite politician Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim, who met with President Bush last week. Al-Hakim, however, was not expected to be the next prime minister because he prefers the role of powerbroker, staying above the grinding day-to-day running of the country.....

They said al-Maliki was livid at the attempt to unseat him.

"We know what's going on and we will sabotage it," said a close al-Maliki aide who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivities involved. He did not elaborate.

A senior aide to al-Sadr, who insisted on anonymity for the same reason, said the proposed alliance was primarily designed to exclude the cleric's backers and they would resist.


In order for this to come together, you're still going to have to resolve the same bottom line problem of establishing a Sunni-Shia power balance.

3 Comments:

  • I'm starting to think the only way forward is for Iran and Saudi Arabia to sit down and hash something out.

    That isn't likely to happen until they themselves feel real pain, so it is a long way off. Not likely they will have the foresight to avoid said pain.

    By Blogger Praguetwin, at 10:03 AM  

  • Oh good. This is smart. Good.

    This is the kind of move that will kick whatever is left of that government into a real spiral. Do they think they can do this and count on the ISF to actually not pick sides?

    By Blogger Bravo 2-1, at 11:15 AM  

  • Prague, that's more or less what I think has to happen.

    I believe that deal might have been a lot easier in early 2004 when the US and Saudi were in a stronger relative position. Doing it now, you're going to have to give up a whole lot, but I don't see another way. The only plus is that now the Syrians have a vested concern for the Sunnis in Iraq so that's a little pressure back.

    ....

    Copy, I couldn't figure out a really good way to say that. The potential for destroying Maliki without a replacement, or having a replacement that is toothless is a big gamble. If you think it's bad trying to get Maliki to handle his fractured Shia base, try getting a government with a fractured Sunni Shia base with Sadr and Sunni insurgents trying to derail it from both sides.

    I would guess the ISF would go the way of the FPS right now, running battles between the ministries. Civil War.

    Mike

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 11:32 AM  

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