Are there any military historians out there?
In modern history, has escalation by a western power against a non-western guerilla/insurgency/civil war ever turned the tide? Russians in Afghanistan, France in Algeria, US in Vietnam....
I'm certainly not an expert, but it would seem there are a lot of counter examples to the idea of a troop surge being successful at regaining control.
I'm certainly not an expert, but it would seem there are a lot of counter examples to the idea of a troop surge being successful at regaining control.
posted by mikevotes at
9:41 PM
10 Comments:
The only insurgency that failed was the Indian Wars here in the US. They were won by outright annihilation. Kill everyone, men, women and children. Only after that is accomplished were they able to hold the territories.
I don't know how well that would play in Iraq.
By
Anonymous, at 8:34 AM
British anti-Communist efforts in Malaysia in the 50s. Our anti-Muslim efforts in the Phillippines just after the Spanish-American War. British efforts against the Boer Kommandos in the Boer War. I'm sure there are others but I need to get to work.
By
Roger Fraley, at 8:55 AM
Thanks a ton, guys.
Not a Historian, I think that's pretty much off the table not only for our cultural reasons, but also because such an action in Iraq would create violence on a far larger scale.
....
Roger, thanks, that's all I wanted. I'll go look into them. I'd forgotten about the phillipines.
However, I would add that both of these took place before the massive increase in individual weapons capabilities. The AK, the RPG, the increase of power and use of modern explosives and the formalizing of guerilla tactics. (I know nothing about the British in Malaysia, so this exception may be wrong.)
But, on a fundamental level, the issue of insurgency is the same.
Thanks a ton.
Mike
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mikevotes, at 9:35 AM
I assume Roger means Malaya, specifically the campaign waged against insurgents between 1948-1960.
A brutal campaign (as counterinsurgency usually is) it apparently provided the model from America's "strategic hamlets" programme in Vietam (where it was less successful).
For more info see Mark Curtis, Web of Deceit: Britain's Real Role in the World (Vintage, London, 2003), Chapter 16
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Disillusioned kid, at 9:44 AM
See "Learning to Eat Soup with a Knife:Counterinsurgency Lessons from Malaya and Vietnam" by John A. Nagl the preface to which is available @ www.press.uchicago.edu
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Anonymous, at 9:51 AM
Thanks a ton guys.
I was just thinking last night about the prospects of this troops surge that seems to be under very serious consideration right now.
I do think that every insurgency/guerilla war is somewhat different, but in an effort to get my head around this "surge option" I was trying to look for examples/counterexamples.
And, I don't think this surge idea is really intended to win so much as buy time. Reading around, I'm gathering that the idea is to try to generate the most stable conditions possible before a partial security handover so it's not a direct comparison to previous guerilla/insurgency conflicts, but I don't think there have been previous modern examples of this specific situation.
Mike
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mikevotes, at 10:05 AM
One of the more interesting examples to me has been the Russians in Chechnya.
The Chechens had big advantages in terrain and inside and outside support, and it was an independence movement, but even so, Chechnya is just tiny, and the Russians had so much trouble there while using so much force.
To me it's an example of how sizable force cannot resolve these situations. (at least in a way acceptable to the American people.)
Mike
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mikevotes, at 10:15 AM
It's worth a try. - GWB
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Anonymous, at 11:44 AM
Oh yeah, if you're thinking about insurgencies, make sure you check out John Robb's Global Guerillas, which has some fascinating information on "Fourth Generation Warfare."
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Disillusioned kid, at 7:51 AM
Cool, I will.
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 10:36 AM
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