Question

As the Maliki government looks less and less likely to establish authority, isn't the incentive of the Iraqi security forces to not go out on patrol or engage in conflicts? If Maliki falls or ends up powerless, won't their "loyalty" end up getting them shot in the back of the head?

As Maliki is perceived to grow weaker, they are less likely to follow his orders, making him weaker.

It's the deadly cycle of a failed state.