The death of the Republican party
Reading this WaPo piece on the "threatened Republican centrists" got me thinking. Let's just presuppose that the Democrats have this wave, and the moderate center of the Republicans is wiped out, and that by some fluke, this situation continues for a couple of election cycles.
With the Democrats coming in with moderates in all those districts, do the Republicans then become the extremist party? Instead of hearing the word "liberal" repeated as the insult, do we begin to see the Republicans painted as "Deep South Republicans" projecting "Alabama values?"
(Personally, I'm not willing to project whether any Dem gains might be held going forward, but, after listening to my views being overstated and classed as "east coast liberal" for so long, I just got to thinking about this.)
With the Democrats coming in with moderates in all those districts, do the Republicans then become the extremist party? Instead of hearing the word "liberal" repeated as the insult, do we begin to see the Republicans painted as "Deep South Republicans" projecting "Alabama values?"
(Personally, I'm not willing to project whether any Dem gains might be held going forward, but, after listening to my views being overstated and classed as "east coast liberal" for so long, I just got to thinking about this.)
posted by mikevotes at
8:04 AM
5 Comments:
After November 7th, there will be a fight for the heart and soul of the Republican party. Pat Buchanan promised that fight after 2004, but it never REALLY materialized. Not until recently, at any rate. But you can see the parameters of the battle now. Andrew Sullivan, Dick Armey, John Danforth, et al. want to take back the Republican Party from the fundies. Pat Buchanan wants to take the party back from the Wall Street and neo-con wings, the fundies are not going to go quietly into the good methadone clinic, and the moderates look like they are going to be no more.
Given the discipline with which Repubs have followed the WH lead these last six years, it will be nice to see them start to eat their own for a while the way Dems usually do. And I do hope the fundies win the battle for the heart and soul of the party.
By
Reality-Based Educator, at 8:26 AM
I'm not convinced. I like the idea of Dems controlling the message. But the Republican machine is very loud, very efficent, and very good at controlling the language, which in turn labels and paints the issue the way they want it to be. The Estate Tax becomes the Death Tax. Cutting environmental protections and adding pollution becomes The Clear Skies Initiative. Mainstream media is "notoriously liberal". Fox News is "Fair and Balanced" (tho this one even they snicker at).
So until that power structure changes they will control the language and labels.
By
zen, at 9:14 AM
Reality, that's the question, I guess, but the fundies, or at least those who are sympathetic/pander to them, will hold the strong majority of elected offices.
Even down at the state level, there aren't any real moderate Republicans who look like wining.
So, despite the cries of Dick Armey, etc, the real agenda, the items presented will all be from the fundies.
(It also will seriously color '08. Do the fundies dig in? Do you see them supporting McCain or Giulianai? If they aren't fervent ground workers, the Repubs lose. There's not a legion of passionate centrists, you know?)
....
Zen, I agree with that point completely. Perhaps my use of labels was a bad example, because you're right.
What I was trying to get at was the potential movement of the party out of the mainstream. If they end up dominated by the fundies who oppose stem cell for instance, they will be well outside the mainstream. Is that the future?
That's what I was trying to get at.
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 11:02 AM
There is a fascinating timeline chart; unfortunately, I cannot find the link, which tracks the major parties against an ideological y-axis. They weave around each other, have subsets that split, recombine with the other party and split again. I think that is what we are seeing now.
Republican moderates are on the chopping block. In red states, the RINOs are challenged by the fundies, and in the blue states by moderate voters who are now more concerned with the candidate’s party affiliation than by any major policy differences. The republican coalition has become too unmanageable to control.
Dean’s 50 state strategy and his moderate recruiting drive have paid some dividends. Half-a-dozen Kansas Rs have become Ds during this election cycle alone. Corporate money will follow the winners, combined with the increase in the strident fundamentalist wing and we will see more defections of republican moderates. With corporate support comes the message machine.
How the democrats will manage this will be interesting but I think we are about to see a major shift beginning.
By
Anonymous, at 5:27 PM
Maybe. I think for this to really take place, the Dems would have to hold in 2008 which I'm not completely convinced is going to happen. I have a feeling that right now, the wave is anti-Republican, not necessarily Democrat. The Dems will still have to close this sale. If they come in and really push their 100 day agenda, minimum wage, stem cells, change the drug plan, and implement the 9-11 report, (all of which have big majority support) they could close the deal, but we're going to have to wait and see.
I think the first real indication we'll get is who comes out the 2008 Republican front runner. (and who they cater to.)
And, Dean's 50 state has worked out. I was a believer in the concept early on, but it could've really blown up. It relied on the idea that early money would create a winning situation that would then bring in more money. If it hadn't, the Dems would be running on funding fumes getting slammed.
The fact that the Dems looked like winning in September forced alot of the business/pac/lobbyist donors to rush money to them which further fuelled the wave..
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 9:08 PM
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