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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Tuesday, November 28, 2006

The balance of power in the Middle East

The headline is that Khamenei/Iran offered Iraq assistance if the US agreed to a withdrawal of forces. Interesting. But what grabbed me was this cryptic bit,
"The main reason for the current situation in Iraq is the US policies that are being carried out by some intermediaries," the Iranian leader said.

He put the blame for Iraq's insecurity on "some US agents in the region who are mediators of these policies".

"Reinforcing terrorist groups and inflaming the wave of insecurity and killings in Iraq will be very dangerous for the US agents and the region," Khamenei said.


So, who are the coded "intermediaries" he's talking about? Is this a veiled threat to the Saudis, Egyptians, and Jordanians to stay far clear of Iraq and its Sunnis, or his he simply playing politics with the Iraqi Shia mind?

Something intentional is being communicated here. To me, it sounds like a warning to the Saudis, but I don't know.

Later: Maybe it is a threat related to this,

When Mr. Bush and Ms. Rice arrive in Amman on Wednesday, they will try to enlist help from Sunni Arab leaders to try to rein in the violence in Iraq by putting pressure on Sunni insurgents.....

Specifically, the United States wants Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt to work to drive a wedge between the Iraqi prime minister, Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, and the anti-American Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr, whose Mahdi Army has been behind many of the Shiite reprisal attacks in Iraq, a senior administration official said. That would require getting the predominantly Sunni Arab nations to work to get moderate Sunni Iraqis to support Mr. Maliki, a Shiite.

Has Israel agreed to the Israel-Palestine peace deal that's on offer? How does Maliki continue to govern(or live) once he abandons the Shia right? Is it better to have Shia militias going radical rather than the Baathists? Do the Saudis guarantee Sunni aid to make up for lost oil revenue?

How do the radical Sunni populations in Saudi and Egypt react?

Just questions right now.

2 Comments:

  • This is classic Persian paranoia. There's good reason for them to doubt what is going on, after all, we've toppled their government once. But, this is more the Iranian culture/political narrative than anything meant for Western consumption.

    By Blogger Bravo 2-1, at 1:29 PM  

  • That's what I was trying to figure out. Thanks.

    This felt like a very intentional statement, but I couldn't tell whether it was a real threat or posturing for the home audience, or maybe for the Iraqi SHia to get them to reject anything coming from the Sunni capitols.

    I have a fair sense of Saudi and Egyptian politics, but Iran is beyond me.

    Mike

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 1:55 PM  

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