The Taleban bet it all in Afghanistan

In all the years of insurgent combat in Afghanistan from the British to the present, this is extremely rare.

The Taliban are planning a major winter offensive combining their diverse factions in a push on the Afghan capital, Kabul, intelligence analysts and sources among the militia have revealed.

The thrust will involve a concerted attempt to take control of surrounding provinces, a bid to cut the key commercial highway linking the capital with the eastern city of Jalalabad, and operations designed to tie down British and other Nato troops in the south.

Winter offensives are very tough for the Taleban because the snows significantly cut down the access to the "safe base" mountain areas along the Afghan/Pakistan border leaving them more limited on resupply, support, and retreat.

The assumption, I guess, is that they now have a strong enough foothold in the south of the country to conduct their rear operations there, but at the same time, this could allow NATO a key opportunity to ravage an isolated force.

This is a big gamble from their side.

The question is, I guess, just how much civilian support does the Taleban now have in southern Afghanistan? I think it's alot. This winter could decide that war.

Also of note in Afghanistan,

British forces in southern Afghanistan are experiencing periods of lockdown in two key areas, halting patrols to avoid suicide bombings by the Taliban. A senior officer called the security threat "critical".

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