Sabato's interesting
Beyond Sabato's predictions, "Democrats are on track to net 21 to 26 seats in the House, 4 to 6 seats in the Senate, and 5 to 7 governorships," I found the whole "Crystal Ball" interesting.
(Also, the GOP has cancelled all Dewine ads in Ohio, and is pouring big money into Kean in New Jersey.)
(Also, the GOP has cancelled all Dewine ads in Ohio, and is pouring big money into Kean in New Jersey.)
posted by mikevotes at
10:21 PM
2 Comments:
Last chance to play offense for the GOP - the $5 million ad buy in Jersey. I guess the Times/CBS poll showing Menendez w/ a 1 point lead over kean validates the move. Given the other polls released about the race lately, I'm not sure I buy the 1 point lead for Menendez, however. It feels like it's a bit bigger than that. Plus the Times/CBS poll has a lot of undecides, which might throw off the findings.
On a related matter, mike, did you ever think the prognostication for the election would be so good for the Dems 11 days out?
By
Reality-Based Educator, at 6:40 AM
Never, never, never did I expect the Dems to be in this kind of poll position this late. After the 9-11 push, before Foley, I'd have argued it'd be close Dem, but I don't think the polling would be showing it completely. I think they'd have had to win a ton of tossup seats.
Unfortunately, Iraq has forced itself into the headlines.(You know I've long been a proponent of more Iraq coverage, but I didn't want it to come because things got so much worse.)
As for New Jersey, I don't know. I haven't been watching that race all that closely and don't have a sense of it. Maybe they dropped the money there because there's no where else to put it? I mean, Allen's full, Talent's full, Corker's full. It might just be that Kean has a better shot than Dewine, but that doesn't necessarily mean he has a good shot, you know?)
I am crossing over now into GOTV as the decider, that the whole election will be decided on turnout. And talking to my local religious voters , neighbors, parents, people I know, they're not juiced to vote and this is down here in Texas. That's the question. What's the environment going to be like on election day? Are there really that many fired up Republican/Kean supporters in NJ? Enough to outweigh the anti-Republican anger in that very blue state?
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 7:57 AM
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