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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Tuesday, September 26, 2006

The Dems finally play a little dirty pool, and it feels good.

I keep talking about how that NIE reframes the terror debate inserting the NYTimes narrative that Iraq has created more terrorists. Well, Bush announced a declassification of the executive summary, and take a look at the early press. (All first paragraph.)

AP: "President Bush on Tuesday said it is naive and a mistake to think that the war with Iraq has worsened terrorism, disputing a national intelligence assessment by his own administration."

Reuters: "an intelligence document that analyzes the Iraq war's effect on terrorism."

AFP: "after news reports said it found that the Iraq war fuels terrorism."

CNN: An angry President Bush Tuesday said he would declassify an intelligence document that reportedly finds that the Iraq war increased the terrorist threat to the United States, saying the American people should come to their own conclusions.

Stepping aside from the facts of the NIE, look at the insertion of that idea into the narrative. Although previously present in the public conscience (shown in polling,) it wasn't in the media narrative at all.

Instead of Iraq being positively framed as essential to the "war on terror," as it was coming off Bush's 9/11 political push, the debate, argument, and subtext of the coming weeks will all be about just how badly Iraq has affected the "war on terror."

The talking head shows will ask their guests,"How big of a mistake was Iraq?" "Is Iraq fuelling terrorism?" "Should we have done things differently?" Editorialists will chime in on both sides.

The thing is, the Republicans cannot win the greater debate, because every voter who has any doubts over Iraq will linger thoughfully over every mention of this. Even if they somehow won the technical argument, they will be losing voters with every point they make.

This is how the Swiftboating worked; this is how they killed McCain in South Carolina. Charges from outside the candidates, outside the party, so that the opponent spends their strength fighting ghosts.

I think this story will fade a bit before the election. The White House response to declassify is an effort to avoid the drip, drip, drip, of further revelations. But in the meantime, it has served to undercut the campaign strategy and momentum the Republicans were carrying.

I think this also kills the "conventional wisdom" shift that had been going on that maybe Republicans aren't in that much trouble.

You know, it's kinda fun when it's your side playing the dirty pool.

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