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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Thursday, August 17, 2006

Iraq: More Bombs, More Violence as the Bush administration steps away from democracy

The lead on the frontpage NYTimes piece this morning is certainly important,
The number of roadside bombs planted in Iraq rose in July to the highest monthly total of the war, offering more evidence that the anti-American insurgency has continued to strengthen despite the killing of the terrorist leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Along with a sharp increase in sectarian attacks, the number of daily strikes against American and Iraqi security forces has doubled since January.

That is significant, but it's the part down at the very bottom that caught my eye.
Yet some outside experts who have recently visited the White House said Bush administration officials were beginning to plan for the possibility that Iraq’s democratically elected government might not survive.

“Senior administration officials have acknowledged to me that they are considering alternatives other than democracy,” said one military affairs expert who received an Iraq briefing at the White House last month and agreed to speak only on condition of anonymity.

“Everybody in the administration is being quite circumspect,” the expert said, “but you can sense their own concern that this is drifting away from democracy.”


I think that the fall of the Maliki government is a real possibility. With the ministry posts spread among the groups, the fracture lines are obviously already there. We're just one event away from one of the groups pulling out.

So what's the plan? Is the US plan to back a strongman? An Iranian backed Saddam Hussein?

All this. All that our two countries have been through, the deaths, the killings, the money, and the blood, and that's the outcome.

Also: The WaPo has had two stories in the last two days about the increases in violence throughout the country as the US brings troops back into Baghdad to pacify four neighborhoods. In Mosul (-3,000 US troops, page 2,) and throughout the small villages outside Baghdad.

And, still, to this day...
Unsure of the loyalties of Iraqi forces, U.S. officers sometimes lie to Iraqi army commanders about where they are going on joint missions and require Iraqi soldiers to give up their cellphones before leaving camp. Police are distrusted even more.

Find me an area of Iraq that's working(or even trending in the right direction.) Politics, security, Iraqi forces' training, public services, the economy, crime,....

We have destroyed this country and these people. It will take them decades, and now it sounds like we may give them a Shia Saddam Hussein.

7 Comments:

  • “Everybody in the administration is being quite circumspect
    So how are they going to sell this one.
    "We are going one better than US style democracy, we are putting a US style benign dictatorship in place."

    By Blogger Cartledge, at 9:56 AM  

  • I have no idea. It's the last remaining rationalization for invading Iraq.

    Certainly, they're going to tape it together through the November elections.

    Mike

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 11:24 AM  

  • Can you imagine all of the hardball politics playing out behind the scenes? The administration desperately wants to keep a lid on the violence through November and the Shiite element using that advantage to get some more goodies.

    Then you have both the Americans and the Shiites worried that the Sunnis will upset that delicate balance and set off the Shiite militias. I do not think they will be able to paper-over it this time.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:50 PM  

  • Yeah, I think about that alot.

    But let me add one more.

    Some of the more "independent" (of the mainstream, not Iran) shia militia groups have been stepping up violence against Kurds, most specifically against the political organization of President Talabani.

    Ostensibly, the violence is growing out of the dispute over Kirkuk, but it seems designed to single out anti-Shia pressure on Talabani's PUK.

    The Kurds have been so peaceful and cooperative. If they distance from the Shia, the whole thing gets even worse.

    Mike

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 1:33 PM  

  • Oh man, I read a comment on another blog about Kirkuk being a center of some new violence that has not been widely reported. This whole mess is about to unwind.

    If things do split, we will have some serious proxy wars. Turkey and Iran seem to come to mind.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:29 PM  

  • I don't know how Turkey and Iran will react if the Kurds become more involved.

    Iran will probably work through the Iraqi shia if they need to, but I don't know if they'll need to.

    If the Kurds want a "homeland" they will need Kirkuk first to finance it. (500,000 barrels per day in good times.)

    And I think their attention may all be shifted south rather than towards Iran or Turkey.

    Mike

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 2:32 PM  

  • Iran began war games today.

    The not trusting of the Iraqi police reminds me of Vietnam. The Viet Cong, sappers (sp?).

    By Blogger Chuck, at 10:14 PM  

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