Polls
A lot of blogs are making a big deal out of this WSJ/Harris poll that shows Bush approval at 34%. Let it go, it's meaningless.
This poll was conducted July 7-10 several days before Israel started attacking Lebanon. That's what's going to shift the polling.
This poll was conducted July 7-10 several days before Israel started attacking Lebanon. That's what's going to shift the polling.
posted by mikevotes at
6:49 AM
3 Comments:
Good point about the Middle East conflict shifting the polling, but HOW will it shift it? Is Bush going to get a bounce out of it? Most of the time, presidents do get a bounce out of world conflict, but this time around, I'm not so sure. The news around the world is so negative these days and the administration seems so impotent to deal with the events that I have a feeling he loses a few more points - this time from his base (which the David Broders and Charlie Cooks were happily pointing out have been coming back to him in the past month and a half.) You can see from the articles about the unhappy conservatives in the Wash Post and the words from Kristol and his gang that some on the right aren't happy with Bush again. I think the Harris poll might be indicative of another slide into the low 30's (a recent Fox poll and AP-Ipsos poll also showed him sliding too.)
BTW, a low 30's slide would be great for midterm momentum. In Charlie Cook's last Congressional Quarterly column, Cook quotes a few GOPer's saying that Bush is up to 40% and if they could get him up to about 45%, he would no longer be a drag on GOP midterm chances. Leaving aside the fact that Bush's approval is a lot lower than 40%, if he slides down into the low 30's again in time for the midterms, he's going to be a major drag on the GOP. They'll want him to come in during the middle of the night to raise money but other wise stay as far away from them as he can.
By
Reality-Based Educator, at 10:10 AM
I don't know how it will impact. I was mulling that as I was driving around this morning. People could move towards the president out of insecurity, and people could tie the Israel-Lebanon conflict to Iraq. Probably both at the same time. I just don't know.
And that's an interesting point about Bush approval and midterms. I haven't been watching the polling all that closely, but I am always supicious of either party's internal polling when it becomes public.(Also, they never give the internals.)
Real internal polling is generally a closely guarded secret, otherwise, they would just utilize the public polling.
I am not a polling expert, but I'm always suspicious when non standardized polls are referenced.
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 11:15 AM
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Unknown, at 2:47 AM
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