Iraq as a regional conflict
Yesterday, I was asking questions about Iraqi PM Maliki's trip to 3 Sunni neighbors Saudi, Kuwait, UAE, in the midst of the "settlement" negotiations with the Sunnis(and also in the middle of the failing Baghdad security crackdown.)
It would make sense for the Saudis and other neighboring Sunni nations to offer support for the Sunni insurgency. It is not in the Saudi interest, for example, for Iraq to become a Shia dominated Iranian client state able to agitate and act across the border.
We've heard a whole lot from the US government about how the Iranians are interfering in the Iraqi process. With Iran's "enemy" status it's unsurprising that those reports are finding their way into headlines.
But, I wonder if Saudi interference in Iraq is being downplayed because of their "ally" status. (Much like Pakistan's apparent continued inaction against the Taliban who are sheltering on their side of the border.)
Has the level of Saudi interference in Iraq reached a point that, in order to manage a "settlement" deal, Maliki must first deal with the Saudis? Has Iraq reached a point where foreign interference is turning Iraq into a regional Sunni/Shia proxy war? Are any of the Saudi "foreign fighters" who have been captured or killed tied to the Saudi intel services or government?
Questions, questions along a new line, and very few answers.
Saudi militants are among the top four nationalities of foreign fighters flocking to Iraq according to the US military and many in Maliki's camp are suspicious of Riyadh's true intentions towards the ascent of the once-oppressed Shiite majority in Iraq.
It would make sense for the Saudis and other neighboring Sunni nations to offer support for the Sunni insurgency. It is not in the Saudi interest, for example, for Iraq to become a Shia dominated Iranian client state able to agitate and act across the border.
We've heard a whole lot from the US government about how the Iranians are interfering in the Iraqi process. With Iran's "enemy" status it's unsurprising that those reports are finding their way into headlines.
But, I wonder if Saudi interference in Iraq is being downplayed because of their "ally" status. (Much like Pakistan's apparent continued inaction against the Taliban who are sheltering on their side of the border.)
Has the level of Saudi interference in Iraq reached a point that, in order to manage a "settlement" deal, Maliki must first deal with the Saudis? Has Iraq reached a point where foreign interference is turning Iraq into a regional Sunni/Shia proxy war? Are any of the Saudi "foreign fighters" who have been captured or killed tied to the Saudi intel services or government?
Questions, questions along a new line, and very few answers.
posted by mikevotes at
7:23 AM
4 Comments:
It's no accident that bin Laden offered his support to the Sunni insurgents in the most recent released statement.
By
Greyhair, at 10:50 AM
Yeah.
I just haven't seen anything solid on the amount of Saudi support. Certainly there are foreign fighters there, but are they from outside the government, or is assistance trickling in through some of the princes, much like the STILL ONGOING assistance of Bin Laden.
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 11:32 AM
Also look at Saudi support (financially and otherwise) of the Somalia Islamists.
BushCo wishes to tie the Somali Islamists to bin Ladin, but this is just thowing mud in the water as the Somalis have worked to distance themselve from bin Ladin, not embrace him.
By
-epm, at 12:09 PM
YEah, I don't know what to make of the Somali distancing. They took on a figure with secondary Al Qaeda ties as a leader, but they're also trying to claim distance. My guess is that they know that if their tied to al qaeda, their revolution will suffer and the country will suffer. Even if they want to be tied to Al Qaeda, for practical reasons it's best that they try to claim distance.
So, I know they want to be known as separate, but as to whether they are I don't know.
Also, the Somalia is a big smack in the face to the Bush admin's whole Iraq as a beacon of democracy domino theory, so it's in their interest to portray the Somalia revolutionaries as tied to Bin Laden as that makes the revolution an Al Qaeda act rather than a loss to Muslims on the " democracy front."
Bottom line, I just can't seem to get a grip on it. Everybody's incentives point to their actions whether they represent the truth or not.
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 1:00 PM
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