Iraqi "peace deal" DOA

The Maliki settlement offer intended to end the insurgency and draw the Sunnis into the political process appears to be DOA.(Big thanks to Leslie for pointing me to this article.)

IRAQ’S main insurgent groups intend to reject a peace plan that Nouri al-Maliki, the prime minister, will present today in an attempt to halt the country’s spiral of violence.

Maliki is expected to go before parliament with a 28- point plan for national reconciliation aimed at defusing the Sunni insurgency and sectarian conflict in which thousands of people have died.....

Representatives of 11 Iraqi insurgent groups told The Sunday Times yesterday that they would reject the peace offer because they did not recognise the legitimacy of the government.

A senior commander authorised to speak on behalf of other groups warned that they would continue to fight. “As long as there is an occupation and an illegitimate government, the resistance and insurgency will continue,” he said.

Maliki’s plan follows talks involving Jalal al-Talabani, the president, Zalmay Khalilzad, the US ambassador, and seven Sunni insurgent groups.

However, the groups that have taken part in the negotiations are understood to be relatively small. Those rejecting the peace offer include larger organisations such as the Islamic Army in Iraq and the Army of Ansar al-Sunna.....

The commander, who cannot be identified, said the seven Sunni insurgent groups in the negotiations were splinter groups and small groups that were neither authorised nor empowered to represent Iraq’s main insurgency......

“The government is very aware that those it says it is negotiating with are not representatives of the main organisations. This whole so-called reconciliation plan is being exaggerated as a breakthrough to help to promote Maliki and his government as well as to aid the Americans to find a face-saving way out of Iraq.”

So, what the heck is going on? Maliki and the US compliment in Iraq headed by Zalmay Khalilzad are pushing through a "peace deal" with several relatively unimportant Sunni groups. The Iraqis must know this is farce.

So, is this all a big political move for the US audience? Is this laying the groundwork for "declaring victory?" A tangible peg on which to hang (token) US troop withdrawals? Is this all part of the 2006 midterm campaign timed so carefully to follow the congressional "debates" on Iraq?

The NYTimes reports(AP) that the plan will be debated in the Iraqi parliament, and that it has public support of a pretty major Sunni politician Adnan al-Dulaimi, the leader of the Accordance Front. However, it also sounds like it may be unlikely to pass.

(Juan Cole "Al-Hayat reports that Malik views this initiative as a privilege of the executive and that he does not intend to have parliament vote on it." So are they going to debate it and not vote on it?)

That's the state of play as I see it at this point, but I don't have a sense of how it will resolve. I think the key question would be why is the US and the Maliki government going through all this if it doesn't involve the mainline resistance groups.