The politics of a UN referral on Iran.

I think the international politics surrounding a UN referral for Iran could be extremely interesting. It will offer a fair picture of the current relationships between the US, Russia, and China.

Western countries are now seeking to persuade other members of UN nuclear watchdog the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to agree to refer Iran to the Council.

European, Russian, Chinese and US officials are due to meet in London on Monday, when they are expected to set a date for the crucial IAEA meeting.

Russia, through a series of actions has been supporting many of the thorns in the side of US foreign policy, offering surface to air missile sales to Iran and Syria, getting the US thrown out of Kazakhistan and shorttermed in Uzbekistan. Also, there is some evidence that the breakdowns in the Korean negotiations have come from a softening of the Russian position.

This change in relationship comes mainly as a result of the US fomenting populist rebellions in Ukraine and other former Soviet states. So, it appears the Russians have decided to distract us elsewhere in order to keep us out of their backyard.

The Chinese, on the other hand, have been soft playing the US, not directly operating against US interests, but coming in behind the many US foreign policy blunders to snap up oil rights and solidify political and trade relationships.

While the Russians have taken a more confrontational approach, the Chinese have proven more subtle, allowing the US to overextend and then taking advantage of US errors, a far longer sighted strategy.

Interestingly, the Bush administration does appear to have played the Euros quite well, offending them over Iraq only to have them more or less forced back to the US side on Iran. There is not the same strength in the relationship because of the offense, but the bottom line is that the Euros are back on board.

The Bush administration's foreign policy has been decidedly unsubtle and that has cost the US alot in terms of influence and persuasion around the world. I think we may be about to get a very instructional look at the current state of the strategies of the major powers.