Losing Afghanistan, too

Afghanistan has never been a huge success, but largely not the tremendous failure of the Iraq endeavor. In the "win-hold" force doctrine of US military planners(win one war while holding another at stalemate,) Iraq was supposed to be the win, and Afghanistan, once the Taleban were removed from power, was to be the hold.

Over the last year an equilibrium of sorts had been established in which the Taliban and Al Qaeda remnants controlled the mountains along the Afghan-Paki border, but kept the violence out of the cities, responding only when attacked. The warlords and poppy barons controlled the rest of the countryside with the coalition forces controlling a few large cities and encountering violence whenever their mission took them outside those "controlled" areas.

But, as many experts have pointed out, that equilibrium appears to have been a delaying action by the Taleban/Al Qaeda alliance intended to regroup, resupply and grow their numbers. The violence has been increasing over the last few months, but if the intel in this Scotsman piece is right, it may be about to get far hotter.

HUNDREDS of foreign Islamic fighters are gathering in Afghanistan ahead of the deployment of 4,000 British troops to the country in the spring.

British intelligence sources have told The Scotsman Islamic radicals sympathetic to al-Qaeda see Afghanistan as their new frontline and are starting to shift the focus of their anti-western campaign from Iraq.

There's more than just this to indicate a hotting up. Up to 500 attacks a month now. For the first time in a year, in the past three weeks, there have been two large engagements where "large groups of insurgents openly battled with US troops and allied Afghan forces."

And the "hawks" in and around the administration are threatening Iran with military action? It's not just Iraq where the Iranians could cause trouble. The whole area is destabilizing. Iv'e read a couple of mentions that Musharraf in Pakistan is coming under increasing pressure.

I don't know, but I think it's all gonna get worse.

UPDATE: Greyhair pointed me to this phenomenal AsiaTimes article on the current state of play regarding the US and Pakistan. His original point was to show that Karzai has begun negotiations with the Taleban, but there's a lot more here. It fairly comprehensively suggests a US falling out with Musharraf. The most interesting bit to me is the itenerary of a "a person close to the US Central Intelligence Agency" which led from New Dehli to Pakistan to former leader Bhutto in the UAE.

" A sudden upsurge in the activities in Pakistan of the Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy - which Bhutto supports - followed."

If you're interested in the area, this is definitely worth the read. It says very little openly, but there are some interesting shifts implied.