Don't poke the dragon.

The politics around the Iran referral to the Security Council are proving as interesting as predicted. Earlier today, a joint statement was agreed upon which condemned the Iranian nuclear program, but did not call for referral with reports of both Russia and China expressing reservations. But by nightfall in London, the story had changed.

The EU3 are now writing a proposal for referral, and the Russians appear to have come on board, at least to some degree. But, this brings up an interesting scenario down the road.

Although they have used their veto in the past, the Chinese absolutely hate being the lone veto vote on Security Council actions. They see a veto as a failure of politics to come to some arrangement before hand, although they will frequently allow negotiations towards an abstention. (like the Iraq resolution.)

Also, there was that bizarre trip that new German Chancellor Merkel took Washington to Moscow, from Bush to Putin. It appears that the US and the Euros are trying to trap China into an isolated position. I think pressing the outward passivity of China is a bad idea. They have taken the long view on geopolitcs as their economic position and influence is strengthening year by year, and I fear isolating them and forcing them towards confrontation just might wake the dragon.