Let's talk about the "Victory" in Iraq

The last and final justification for the Iraq war is crumbling. (CS Monitor)

A bloc of Shiite religious parties close to Iran has, according to results released Tuesday, attracted the largest percentage of voters.

It takes a two thirds majority to appoint ministers or amend the constitution. Remember how that constitution deal was passed, weeks late with the promise to the Sunnis that it could be altered after this election? (AP)

A senior member of the Alliance, Hussain al-Shahristani, predicted the bloc would receive about 130 seats — 10 fewer than they have now. But unlike last January's elections, which most Sunni Arabs boycotted, this time the Sunnis voted in large numbers. (there are a total of 275 seats - mike)

So, the objections that the Sunnis had when they signed on to the constitution, the differences with the Shia they were told could later be amended, will not be changed without the consent of at least some of the strongly religious, tied to Iran, Iraqi Alliance vote regardless of what the Kurds do. (And I would guess that the tactics of an Iraqi vote whip are probably pretty effective.)

So that leaves the avenue left to the Sunnis as open violence. (WaPo)

Alluding to Sunnis who chose to abandon their earlier rejection of Iraqi politics and participate in Thursday's election, Adnan Dulaimi, a chief of the main Sunni coalition, the Tawafaq front, demanded: "What would we tell those whom we indirectly convinced to stop the attacks during the election period? What would we tell those people who wanted to boycott and we convinced them to participate?"

The preliminary results, he said, were "not in the interest of stability of the country."

And, as if having the Sunnis practicing open violence isn't enough...(Same WaPo piece)

The final distribution of seats in the 275-member National Assembly will be decided by a complicated formula that is based on turnout and is skewed to reward small parties by giving them some representation.

Do you think the Shias who "won" the election are going to accept this dilution of their power without some extra-legislative response?

2,158 have died so far for this, with tens of thousands physically wounded and estimates of up to 50,000 more with psychological damage.

Tell me again about the "beacon of freedom in a part of the world that is desperate for freedom and liberty" which "will serve as such an optimistic and hopeful example for reformers from Tehran to Damascus."

I like that story.