Quick notes on an Iraqi Constitution.
Just a couple of quick bullet points on the Iraqi Constitution.
1) They missed another deadline today, instead submitting an "incomplete document" a minute before the midnight deadline leaving it to their parliament to thrash out some details. Supposedly three more days til the parliament votes on it, but I find that highly doubtful considering the issues still unresolved.
2) Among the early reporting, "federalism," the relative strength of the central state vs. the regional powers, is being cited as the main stubling block. I may be mistaken, but from what I saw reported on the last public draft, I would think the role of Islam, "that there will be no law which contradicts Islam" as determined by a council of clerics, could in fact be a big sticking point. Beyond, the obvious interpretational problems which would occur between the sects, I would think that the minority groups would absolutely refuse this model, as it would allow a massive influence of the Shia clergy. It looks to be a model much like Iran's governmental structure, and that has not been particularly kind to Iran's religious minorities.
I find this division being sorely underreported relative to the "federalism" argument. Coincidentally, it is the most damaging for the Bush, "bringing freedom to the world" war justification. Not saying there's a link, eventual Iraqi Kurdish independence would be a massive changing force in the region, offering safe haven and support for the PKK in Turkey, and its parallel in N. Iran, but I just find it odd that the implications of this structure, minority repression, enforcement of a sharia, severe retrogression on women's rights, aren't being brought forward in this discussion.
3. Also notice, as you read on this draft document, that there is very little mention of the division of power between the parliamentary and executive posts. It is a parliamentary system, so you're talking Prime Minister type construction, not US style independent executive, but there are both weak and dictatorial prime ministers out there. This also could be tremendously significant for both the near term and long term future of Iraq. If the strong executive route is chosen, near term security will probably be better, but long term stability will probably be more questionable. Look at the history of the puppet strongmen the US has set up elsewhere to get some idea of what I'm talking about.
4. Lastly, although I doubt this will come to pass, if a draft constitution cannot be agreed upon and brought for a national vote, the current parliament is to be dissolved, and a new round of national elections is to be held. This will also take place is 2/3 of the voters in three of the provinces reject the new constitution. There are three pretty good sunni province candidates for this to happen, so keep an eye on what their side is saying.
Now, as to the timetable for these new elections, I don't know what precisely is involved.
Although I find this scenario highly unlikely, as it would, more or less, be an open declaration of civil war, it would be a possible final outcome of failed negotiations.
1) They missed another deadline today, instead submitting an "incomplete document" a minute before the midnight deadline leaving it to their parliament to thrash out some details. Supposedly three more days til the parliament votes on it, but I find that highly doubtful considering the issues still unresolved.
2) Among the early reporting, "federalism," the relative strength of the central state vs. the regional powers, is being cited as the main stubling block. I may be mistaken, but from what I saw reported on the last public draft, I would think the role of Islam, "that there will be no law which contradicts Islam" as determined by a council of clerics, could in fact be a big sticking point. Beyond, the obvious interpretational problems which would occur between the sects, I would think that the minority groups would absolutely refuse this model, as it would allow a massive influence of the Shia clergy. It looks to be a model much like Iran's governmental structure, and that has not been particularly kind to Iran's religious minorities.
I find this division being sorely underreported relative to the "federalism" argument. Coincidentally, it is the most damaging for the Bush, "bringing freedom to the world" war justification. Not saying there's a link, eventual Iraqi Kurdish independence would be a massive changing force in the region, offering safe haven and support for the PKK in Turkey, and its parallel in N. Iran, but I just find it odd that the implications of this structure, minority repression, enforcement of a sharia, severe retrogression on women's rights, aren't being brought forward in this discussion.
3. Also notice, as you read on this draft document, that there is very little mention of the division of power between the parliamentary and executive posts. It is a parliamentary system, so you're talking Prime Minister type construction, not US style independent executive, but there are both weak and dictatorial prime ministers out there. This also could be tremendously significant for both the near term and long term future of Iraq. If the strong executive route is chosen, near term security will probably be better, but long term stability will probably be more questionable. Look at the history of the puppet strongmen the US has set up elsewhere to get some idea of what I'm talking about.
4. Lastly, although I doubt this will come to pass, if a draft constitution cannot be agreed upon and brought for a national vote, the current parliament is to be dissolved, and a new round of national elections is to be held. This will also take place is 2/3 of the voters in three of the provinces reject the new constitution. There are three pretty good sunni province candidates for this to happen, so keep an eye on what their side is saying.
Now, as to the timetable for these new elections, I don't know what precisely is involved.
Although I find this scenario highly unlikely, as it would, more or less, be an open declaration of civil war, it would be a possible final outcome of failed negotiations.
posted by mikevotes at
4:00 PM
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