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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Monday, February 04, 2008

Political bits

How significant is it that the one Republican candidate who didn't call for rounding up illegals is the likely GOP candidate? Has the damage already been done by the party?

(Swamp) "Sen. Hillary Clinton teared up this morning at an event at the Yale Child Study Center...." (Take a look at the CNN video. This seems like the media is creating this. Not much there.)

(WaPo) "Angry McCain," the latest Romney attack angle features on the front page of the WaPo.

(WaPo) "One Clinton adviser, granted anonymity in order to speak candidly about the contest, said the campaign is now anticipating it will not be able to reclaim its front-runner status on Tuesday night. Even California, once believed to be firmly in the Clinton column, has now tightened, the adviser said, but Clinton still hopes to carry it." (I think this is talking down expectations.)

(Politico) Obama's camp tries to lower expectations. (Chuck Todd has a more analytical take.)

The end of this WaPo piece looks past Super Tuesday.

And, Has there ever been a major presidential candidate who is as poor on the stump as McCain?

(Regarding the Dem polling, I don't think there can be any argument that there has been an Obama surge tightening it all up, but with the crazy rules on delegate apportionment, the polls, even if accurate, may not reflect what comes out tomorrow.

The two key questions are whether the "likely voter/caucuser" modeling will be accurate in this year of huge turnouts, and how the Edwards voters are breaking. (Looks like Obama?)

So we wait, and we watch. It's really exciting, isn't it?)


  • "It's really exciting, isn't it?"

    Yes it is... in a "where's my Malox" kind of way.

    I'm going to hit the sack early on Tuesday and sort it all out on Wednesday once all the numbers are in. Yeah, right.

    By Blogger -epm, at 3:35 PM  

  • I may. I don't know when California closes. Of course, I'm an hour later than you, but it will likely run past midnight here.

    C'mon, it's fun. At this point, everybody's a winner.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 3:56 PM  

  • Looks like Joe Lieberman is a big part of the McCain package. I wonder if that's a major factor.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 4:25 PM  

  • I gotta say, living down here in red Texas that the blinders on Republicans talk about that relationship as a hugely positive reflection on McCain.

    Not knowing the Lieberman backstory, their general impression is that McCain is so "straight-shooting" that it even convinced the ultra Dem.

    (That's really what they think.)

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 4:59 PM  

  • I don't know what time the networks will start reporting on results. Will they start reporting on East Coast results before the polls close in CA? The polls in CA won't close until 23:00 my time. Maybe I'll just go to bed... but leave the radio on.

    If the Dems win the WH, and more importantly, increase their hold on the Senate, will Joe lose his committee seats? Are we looking at a dead man walking, politically speaking...

    By Blogger -epm, at 5:58 PM  

  • They're scheduled for &PM local time here (central,) and probably the most intriguing to me is the Univision Super Martes coverage.

    And on Lieberman, I don't know. That's a long way away. If they won 60 they might, but I don't think they'll want to seriously anger him.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 6:11 PM  

  • That's 7 PM.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 6:22 PM  

  • OK, I'm stuck on this Lieberman thing....

    If the Dems pick up even three senate seats (and I'm not up on the races to know if this is probable or not) why not "anger" Lieberman? What value is it to the Dems to keep him in a leadership position as a committee chair?

    By Blogger -epm, at 7:32 PM  

  • I don't know. That's way beyond tomorrow, man.

    He may make that choice himself if he campaigns for McCain over a Dem nominee.

    I'll worry about that later.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 9:07 PM  

  • Just idle (or morbid) curiosity. I'm not worried about Lieberman, just wondering about his relevancy.

    I guess is just McCain's boy toy for now. As you point out a token for McCain to show how he can reach across the aisle. Though that's gotta be the worlds most narrow aisle...

    By Blogger -epm, at 11:44 PM  

  • His relevancy is for Republicans who want to think themselves moderate, reasoned, and worldly. He gives them moral cover to vote Republican despite Bush's approval.

    And, I think the problem is worse than you fear. Lieberman is aiming for an entire post-senate career as the token Democrat. A prominent well paid chair at the AEI so they too can claim they're bipartisan.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 7:13 AM  

  • Zell Miller without the spit and bile?

    By Blogger -epm, at 1:59 PM  

  • Whoever wins the Democratic nomination--and at the moment I think it's going to be Obama--is going to have a really tough time with McCain. Joe Lieberman is a joke to those of us over here on the left, but there are a lot of people out there in middle America who think like he does.

    While there are a lot of people who are sick of right-wing rule, that doesn't mean they are ready to swing to (what they perceive as)left-wing rule. I think the Dems have overreached.

    So I'm feeling fairly gloomy about the general election right now... though on the bright side, McCain and a Democratic Congress is still a huge improvement over Bush and a Republican Congress.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:49 PM  

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