Post SOTU thought
The Obama administration, and the Democrats more broadly, have lost control of the narrative, and thus lost their power.
It is the media which generates alot of the external pressure to get things done, and once they're allowed to slow down and pick at the individual threads of a fraying effort (threads like Landrieu, Nelson, etc.) the problems only get worse.
If you'll remember the way the Bush administration worked, even with a slim majority, they would roll out a new initiative each week, and the ones that didn't work, they just let go of. Thus, they got large portions of their agenda through while not particularly suffering for the things that failed. (even the major ones like social security reform.)
Now, I'm not saying that I would model the Bush policies, and alot of the blame does fall on Congressional Democrats (four months to reach an "in principle" Senate healthcare deal?,) but I think the key lesson of the first year is that the Obama folks allowed the narrative to flag, effectively ceding agenda setting and offense/defense to the tea party/Republican rabble, to the media, to the Congressional Democrats, and to anyone else who wanted to scream loudly enough to gain attention for their own purposes.
The 24 hour news networks seek to fill their vast programming spaces, and if you don't provide enough fodder, they will look elsewhere, and you will lose control of the agenda setting narrative.
So, something new every full week Monday. Pick the argument for the week, and you largely win the argument for the week. Build a sense of momentum where everyone looks to you for the topic of the week. Sure, you're not going to get everything you want, but you'll get alot, and then, when those results lead to more popularity, momentum, and power, then you can turn the screws.
PS. "Moral" appeals like "we were sent here to serve the people," or trying to guilt Republicans into "bipartisanship" will never work. It is power and leverage which get things done.
It is the media which generates alot of the external pressure to get things done, and once they're allowed to slow down and pick at the individual threads of a fraying effort (threads like Landrieu, Nelson, etc.) the problems only get worse.
If you'll remember the way the Bush administration worked, even with a slim majority, they would roll out a new initiative each week, and the ones that didn't work, they just let go of. Thus, they got large portions of their agenda through while not particularly suffering for the things that failed. (even the major ones like social security reform.)
Now, I'm not saying that I would model the Bush policies, and alot of the blame does fall on Congressional Democrats (four months to reach an "in principle" Senate healthcare deal?,) but I think the key lesson of the first year is that the Obama folks allowed the narrative to flag, effectively ceding agenda setting and offense/defense to the tea party/Republican rabble, to the media, to the Congressional Democrats, and to anyone else who wanted to scream loudly enough to gain attention for their own purposes.
The 24 hour news networks seek to fill their vast programming spaces, and if you don't provide enough fodder, they will look elsewhere, and you will lose control of the agenda setting narrative.
So, something new every full week Monday. Pick the argument for the week, and you largely win the argument for the week. Build a sense of momentum where everyone looks to you for the topic of the week. Sure, you're not going to get everything you want, but you'll get alot, and then, when those results lead to more popularity, momentum, and power, then you can turn the screws.
PS. "Moral" appeals like "we were sent here to serve the people," or trying to guilt Republicans into "bipartisanship" will never work. It is power and leverage which get things done.
7 Comments:
I'm starting to think he set himself an impossible task when he took on the Israeli settlements. It's been all downhill from there.
By Anonymous, at 8:08 AM
I think the plan was to take the high popularity and try to do everything at once.
Problem is, that's too many interests against whetjher it's middle east peace, healthcare or cap and trade.
It was just too many fighting against with the administration's attention spread too thin.
By mikevotes, at 8:34 AM
Good post.
Re: ""Moral" appeals like "we were sent here to serve the people," or trying to guilt Republicans into "bipartisanship" ..."
I took this as a message not to the Republicans, but to the mad-as-hellers; setting up the Repubs as anti-middle class / pro-special interest. I think he's trying to a) set a populist agenda (jobs, middle class tax cuts, etc) and b) frame the Repubs as the reason people aren't feeling relief.
The bulk of your argument -- and I agree with it -- is that Obama needs to take the bull by the horns and manage the media narrative. He's had some great ideas, but tossing these ideas to Harry Reid saying "Make this happen" then stepping back isn't my idea of leadership.
You know all that vaporous "Chicago politics" the Repubs keep whining about (but somehow cannot give examples)? I for one would actually like to see some of that. In fact, I think most independents would feel more comfortable with Obama (and the Dems) if they actually saw them as fighting for a principle instead of forming "gangs of six" to weasel out some nightmarish negotiation.
By -epm, at 10:11 AM
Oh, I getcha. Gotta admit I didn't watch the speech but saw the pro-bipartisan headlines, so I got it all a bit out of context.
As for narrative, yeah. And I think to some degree, the problem is Harry Reid. They tossed to Pelosi and, it was a little ugly, but it got done.
And, I think there's a natural reticence for Obama to start fighting too early. I think he likes to wait for things to play out a bit, to avoid confrontations he doesn't have to have.
What I'd like to see is for them to "punish" someone to draw a line. Maybe a Ben Nelson. Nobody's too afraid of bucking right now.
By mikevotes, at 12:06 PM
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