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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Thursday, July 02, 2009

The longer term Iranian struggle

It's not really clear where Moussavi's level of influence will settle after all this, but he's firmly staking out his position, not against the election, but against the Guardian council, calling it "illegitimate."

As the furor over the stolen election dies down and the protesters pull back from the streets, will Moussavi's criticism still have the same impact in 6 months? Will they be able to transition the passion of their movement?

5 Comments:

  • I understand the temporary brilliance of the flareup over a heavily-contested election, and I understand that Mousavi is a wealthy deal-making government insider...
    But I find myself so admiring the focused tenacity of the people on the reformist side of this clash.
    And I can't help but think that it will be a different Iran going forward.

    By Blogger r8r, at 3:11 PM  

  • That's part of the question.... Several of the powerful "reformers" found this issue and the protests an opportunity to gel and push their case.

    I would argue the flare up was necessary as it allowed everyone to see the size of the reform block on grass roots level. Coming out of this, all those people who don't like the current status can now look around and know their not alone, and the protests will become something of a symbolic moment to the group.

    All that said, I think it's tricky translating a passionate immediate reaction into a longer term movement. They've got awareness now, now how do you keep the momentum going?

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 3:51 PM  

  • If the government is smart they will deal with the complaints...privatization, oil revenues, dress code issues and let the steam out. Also if they can show solid evidence of outside interference some of the protesters will lose their enthusiasm. The key issue will still be nuclear enrichment.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 6:54 PM  

  • Honestly, if they could fix the economy, that would go a long way.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 8:45 PM  

  • Lifting the sanctions would help there.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:19 PM  

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