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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Next for Iran

Even if they stay in power, as looks likely, the influence and legitimacy of both Khamenei and Ahmadinejad have already been undermined. The battle now becomes a longer term struggle for power.

The reformist leaders now seem to be shifting their focus to turn the protesters into a longer term oppositional force. The word is now that they will slowly abandon the street protests and try to start strikes and work stoppages in key areas.

(At the top level, Khamenei, Rafsanjani, Khatami, Moussavi, Larijani, this was always about Khamenei's power and influence.)

2 Comments:

  • I was reading about health care reform (an issue very important to me) and the institutional opposition to a public option. It occurred to me that Congress critters and insurance companies are like the Iranian guardian council. Their in power. Their the status quo. They can merely play out the clock to avoid real reform, even in the face of public opinion.

    A bit of a tangent, I know. But there's something universal about the power of incumbency and it's corrupting quality.

    By Blogger -epm, at 10:24 AM  

  • Healthcare is not my strong suit, and the plans aren't really defined yet, so I've stayed away.

    But I've been thinking what a dislocation a single payer system would be. Suddenly, employees could switch jobs without fear, and with equivalent healthcare, there'd be alot more people starting/moving to small business.

    My point being, I don't think it's just insurance companies pressuring Congress. Depending on how it's paid for, a single payer system could erode some of big business' power over employees.

    Again, not my area, but thinking out loud.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 1:23 PM  

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